Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.</li><li>I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.</li><li>For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.</li></ul>

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025.I actually found a few theses that I don’t even find that outrageous in its directionaly.For example: “The crypto market quadruples to more than USD 10 trillion, the US dollar falls 20% against major currencies and 30% versus gold.

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:</li><li>Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !</li><li>The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !</li></ul>

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news &amp; chatter:Bears Make Headlines &amp; Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As always … !The bear case sounds very smart very often, only problem is, it’s quite rarely right … !

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

<ul><li>As I <strong>reflected</strong> on my performance in 2023, I was reminded that benchmarking can be a brutal process.</li><li>But it keeps you humble. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about my chosen benchmark, the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>I occasionally think as an international investor I should change it.</li></ul>

As I reflected on my performance in 2023, I was reminded that benchmarking can be a brutal process.But it keeps you humble. I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about my chosen benchmark, the S&amp;P 500.I occasionally think as an international investor I should change it.

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets, Kaiko

Kaiko

Data-Driven Analysis of Cryptocurrency Markets

Kaiko is the leading cryptocurrency market data provider for institutional investors and enterprises. We empower market participants with accurate, transparent, and actionable financial data to be leveraged for a range of market activities. Kaiko’s mission is to be the foundation of the new digital finance economy by serving as a single source for market information. Our mission is premised on the idea that high-quality data drives market efficiency and greater transparency throughout the industry. For each of our enterprise clients, we build custom data plans designed for a range of use cases.

Crypto

<ul><li>This week, news broke that the oldest crypto market maker, GSR, has been scaling back operations - particularly in the U.S. - while a number of top executives have left the company.</li><li>This is yet another hit to U.S. and global liquidity and volumes; in May, Jump Crypto and Jane Street revealed they were reducing crypto operations.</li><li>This week, we’ll take a look at the state of the crypto market, including volatility, liquidity, and volumes, and then examine some budding narratives and tokens.</li></ul>

This week, news broke that the oldest crypto market maker, GSR, has been scaling back operations - particularly in the U.S. - while a number of top executives have left the company.This is yet another hit to U.S. and global liquidity and volumes; in May, Jump Crypto and Jane Street revealed they were reducing crypto operations.This week, we’ll take a look at the state of the crypto market, including volatility, liquidity, and volumes, and then examine some budding narratives and tokens.

United States

The S&P 500® is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities and serves as the foundation for a wide range of investment products. The index includes 500 leading companies and captures approximately 80% coverage of available market capitalization.

S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions

Not so Outrageous Commodity Predictions Saxo Bank published their annual “outrageous predictions” for 2025. I actually found a few theses that I...

The Commodity Report

The S&P 500 Report: Performance, Profitability, Sentiment & More - #Ed 5

Zooming out first for a big picture perspective - helpful away from the news & chatter: Bears Make Headlines & Lose Money, Bulls Make Money! As...

Maverick Equity Research

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Picking a Benchmark

I don’t spend a lot of time thinking about my chosen benchmark, the S&P 500.I occasionally think as an international investor I should change it.

Investment Talk

Where Has the Volatility Gone?

This week, we’ll take a look at the state of the crypto market, including volatility, liquidity, and volumes, and then examine some budding...

Kaiko