Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DRAM revenues for Q125 amounted to $28.6 billion, up 1.5% QoQ and up 57.4% YoY. </li>
<li>NAND Q125 revenues amounted to $13.3 billion, down 20.6% QoQ and down 5.5% YoY.</li>
<li>Micron's HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030. Transformation incoming!</li>
</ul>


DRAM revenues for Q125 amounted to $28.6 billion, up 1.5% QoQ and up 57.4% YoY. 
NAND Q125 revenues amounted to $13.3 billion, down 20.6% QoQ and down 5.5% YoY.
Micron's HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030. Transformation incoming!


Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review, Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook Etc.

<ul>
<li>A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025</li>
<li>Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.</li>
<li>The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. </li>
</ul>


A total of 154 submissions on proposed tariffs by the US authorities on semiconductors were received by the closing date of May 7, 2025
Key submissions were made by TSMC, Intel, Texas Instruments, Lam Research, Micron etc. Notable by their absence were Apple, AMD, Cadence, Synopsys, Broadcom, Marvell etc.
The submissions by key players were universally negative on any types of tariffs with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat of reciprocal tariffs from other countries. 


Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI </li>
<li>The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. </li>
<li>The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers</li>
</ul>


Growth expectations have come down, 2025 now expected flat YoY  1) China, Auto &amp; Industrial Capex declining 2) Intel inflated Capex is deflating 3) capacity add only from HBM, AI 
The big structural positives continue (HBM, GAA, BSPD, High NA). This means higher Capex intensity. From 3nm to 14A, Capex doubles.  Wafer price doubles. 
The risk is to overestimate demand: who can afford chips 2x more expensive? Chips that generate revenue or lower costs, ie chips that run applications in Data Centers


Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We assume that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.</li>
<li>The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vanguard-international-semi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16011:1" rel="noopener">Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT)</a> and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. </li>
</ul>


We assume that Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) will see an upside in its 2Q25 outlook by a few percentage points.
The DDIC (Display Driver IC) segment appears relatively flat, while PMIC (Power Management IC) may experience slight growth.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor (5347 TT) and other Taiwanese semiconductor Fabs are not subject to the 125% tariff imposed by Beijing on U.S. products. 


Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty -- Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.</li>
<li>
PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery -- Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.</li>
<li>
Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares -- Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.</li>
</ul>



SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty -- Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.

PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery -- Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.

Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares -- Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.


Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review, Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook Etc.

Micron's HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030....

William Keating

Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

SK Hynix anticipates strong AI/server memory demand despite global uncertainty. SK Hynix shares positioned favorably vs. Nanya Tech shares,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Semiconductor Memory Q125 Review, Tariff & Tech Transition Impacts, HBM Outlook Etc.

Micron's HBM revenues grew 50% QoQ. Sk Hynix will double HBM revenues YoY. HBM TAM on track to exceed entire DRAM industry 2024 revenues by 2030....

William Keating

Semiconductor Tariffs. No Thanks, But If You Insist...

The submissions on proposed semiconductor tariffs were universally negative with many warnings about unintended consequences as well as the threat...

William Keating

Semi Production Equipment Part 1: Great Tech Upgrades but Expectations Are Still Inflated

​SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Nicolas Baratte

Vanguard (5347.TT): 2Q25 Outlook Slightly Upbeat; US Tariffs Remain a Negative Factor.

​Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

Patrick Liao

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

​SK Hynix anticipates strong AI/server memory demand despite global uncertainty. SK Hynix shares positioned favorably vs. Nanya Tech shares,...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SEMI PROD EQUIIPMENT growth expectations have decreased, 2025 expected flat YoY. Structural positives like HBM and AI drive higher capex...

Vanguard Intl Semiconductor expected to see slight upside in 2Q25 outlook, with PMIC segment showing potential growth and no impact from Beijing's...

SK Hynix anticipates strong AI/server memory demand despite global uncertainty. SK Hynix shares positioned favorably vs. Nanya Tech shares,...