Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance</li>
<li>TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing </li>
<li>UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Shares Fall With Nvidia... SK Hynix HBM DRAM with Global Unichip? Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues... Broadcom Developing an AI Chip with Bytedance
TechChain Insights: Call with Elan Micro; AI PC Significant Uptake 4Q24/1H25; Supply Chain Preparing 
UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): The Outlook for 3Q24 Has Reached a Slightly Upside QoQ. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

<ul>
<li>Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.</li>
<li>Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.</li>
<li>Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>


Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.
Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.
Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.


Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025</li>
<li>Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. </li>
<li>Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. </li>
</ul>


HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025
Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. 
Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. 


Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

<ul>
<li>We conducted a Q&amp;A with Kinik, who is a key supplier to companies including TSMC, UMC, and Micron.</li>
<li>Kinik is dramatically expanding its diamond disk capacity; these products are critical to the production of wafers for advanced semiconductor nodes.</li>
<li>We believe Kinik has high visibility into future industry demand. Gross margins are likely to expand in the coming years as advanced diamond products become increasingly important to wafer production.</li>
</ul>


We conducted a Q&amp;A with Kinik, who is a key supplier to companies including TSMC, UMC, and Micron.
Kinik is dramatically expanding its diamond disk capacity; these products are critical to the production of wafers for advanced semiconductor nodes.
We believe Kinik has high visibility into future industry demand. Gross margins are likely to expand in the coming years as advanced diamond products become increasingly important to wafer production.


TechChain Insights: Q&A with TSMC Supplier Kinik; Diamond Capex Implies Industry Strength Visibility

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM</li>
<li>WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast</li>
<li>We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion,  +15.8% YoY &amp; +1.1% MoM
WSTS now forecasts a 16.1% increase in 2024 semi sales, up from 13.1% in their previous forecast
We think the WSTS forecast for Memory is too high &amp; their forecast for Logic is too low. Excluding memory, the WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth in 2024.


Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Micron's HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025, making it a record revenue year for the...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Q&A with TSMC Supplier Kinik; Diamond Capex Implies Industry Strength Visibility

Q&A with Kinik reveals expansion of diamond disk capacity crucial for semiconductor production, indicating high visibility into future industry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Taiwan Tech Weekly: Declines With Nvidia; Taiwan's Vietnam Shift Continues; UMC's Outlook Improves

New Vietnam investments by Hon Hai and Wistron, Elan preparing for significant AI PC uptake in 4Q24/1H25, UMC's outlook increasingly optimistic for...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

​Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Micron's HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025, making it a record revenue year for the...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Q&A with TSMC Supplier Kinik; Diamond Capex Implies Industry Strength Visibility

​Q&A with Kinik reveals expansion of diamond disk capacity crucial for semiconductor production, indicating high visibility into future industry...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Global Semi Sales YTD 2024 & Outlook: The Good & The Not So Good

Global semi sales for April '24 were $46.4 billion, +15.8% YoY & +1.1% MoM. Excluding memory, the latest WSTS forecast reflects just 3.1% growth...

William Keating

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Q&A with Kinik reveals expansion of diamond disk capacity crucial for semiconductor production, indicating high visibility into future industry...