Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> is the biggest sell while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is the biggest buy.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) in December but there are a lot of float and capping changes.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) is the biggest sell while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is the biggest buy.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than 0.2x ADV to trade.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us</li>
<li>Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side</li>
<li>Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!</li>
</ul>


9.4% semi revenue decline in 2023 seems about right to us
Forecast of13.1% semi revenue increase in 2024, seems on the high side
Forecast assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. Sanjay will be delighted to hear the good news!


WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA: Luxeed S7 officially launched, price lowered by RMB 8,200 (-)</li>
<li>NIO: Geely and NIO enter into strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping (+)</li>
<li>ACMR/ MU/ NVDA/ 981.HK/ 1810.HK/ 000660.KS: CXMT launches first domestic LPDDR5 RAM (+/+/+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA: Luxeed S7 officially launched, price lowered by RMB 8,200 (-)
NIO: Geely and NIO enter into strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping (+)
ACMR/ MU/ NVDA/ 981.HK/ 1810.HK/ 000660.KS: CXMT launches first domestic LPDDR5 RAM (+/+/+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range</li>
<li>2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery</li>
<li>Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. </li>
</ul>


Improving outlook with Q1F24 revenue forecast slightly above the high end of the guided range
2024 is being positioned as a "recovery year", helping reset investor expectations about the nature and speed of the recovery
Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present rally is premature. 


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped</li>
<li>Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively</li>
</ul>


Taiwan AI Plays Top Losers Recently, Dell Results Coming Today U.S. Time to Provide Color for PCs and Servers
Taiwan Tech Post-Earnings Takeaways: Semis Margins Underestimated? Hardware 2024E Forecasts Ramped
Nanya, Yageo Top Gainers; We Rate the Stocks Outperform and Structural Long Respectively


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than...

Brian Freitas

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

Luxeed S7 electric vehicle officially launched with a price reduction, Geely and NIO form a strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Nanya and Yageo have been top gainers recently with Yageo achieving new 52-week highs; We rate the stocks as Outperform and Structural Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: TSMC Is the Big Sell

There are no constituent changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 6.6% resulting in a one-way trade of US$682m. Couple of stocks have greater than...

Brian Freitas

WSTS Forecasts Semi Revenue Increase of 13.1% In 2024. Seriously?

WSTS forecast for 13.1% semi growth in 2024 assumes a ~45% YoY increase in memory revenue. This is an unlikely scenario and not at all the vibe we...

William Keating

[Blue Lotus Daily]: XPEV/NIO/BYD/TSLA LI/Geely/ACMR/ MU/NVDA/981.HK/1810.HK/000660.KS

​Luxeed S7 electric vehicle officially launched with a price reduction, Geely and NIO form a strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping,...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Micron. The Rally Is Premature

Micron's share price typically rallies strongest into record revenue years. 2024 will not be a record revenue year. As such, we think the present...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Taiwan AI Top Losers; Dell to Provide PC/Server Color; Post-3Q Results Takeaways

Nanya and Yageo have been top gainers recently with Yageo achieving new 52-week highs; We rate the stocks as Outperform and Structural Long...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Luxeed S7 electric vehicle officially launched with a price reduction, Geely and NIO form a strategic cooperation agreement for battery swapping,...