Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.</li>
<li>The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.</li>
<li>Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.</li>
</ul>


Nanya Technology recently reported 3Q22 results and its gross margin fell substantially, but this appears mostly digested into consensus estimates.
The company also announced a major reduction in capex, which highlights the latest industry trend whereby supply/demand imbalances are being addressed by reduced capacity expansion.
Nanya Technology has outperformed the TAIEX Semi Index by ~27% in less than three weeks.


Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.</li>
<li>TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.</li>
<li>Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.</li>
</ul>


TSMC says limited impact from U.S. China restrictions -- We crosscheck the comments.
TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. Looks cheap on a cycle-adjusted PE.
Intel has outperformed TSMC shares despite the recent TSMC rebound.


Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.</li>
<li>Affiliate and former subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (6600 JP)</a> announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.</li>
<li>Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. </li>
</ul>


On Friday, Toshiba investors got two bits of news which have been taken as non-bullish.
Affiliate and former subsidiary Kioxia (6600 JP) announced it would cut wafer input volume by 30% starting in October, and Toshiba's announcement on the Privatisation process status implied some delay.
Today the shares are getting hit vs Peers. It's still a problem of lots of moving parts. 


<ul>
<li>Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.</li>
<li>However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.</li>
<li>There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.</li>
</ul>


Micron's near-term guidance implies that consensus estimates likely need to come down for both Micron and Nanya Tech.
However, Micron indicated that they expect supply/demand balance to improve in 2023E.
There could be more negative industry news to come, however Nanya Tech has a very strong balance sheet to weather some weak quarters and is trading at trough-type valuations.


Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<ul>
<li>Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter</li>
<li>The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22</li>
<li>This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls</li>
</ul>


Micron's Sept 29 4QF22 earnings call met the company's low guidance for the quarter
The company's current-quarter outlook is for a significantly worse 4QF22
This phenomenon will impact the earnings for all of Micron's competition in upcoming calls


United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron FYQ4: Bad, and About to Get Worse

Micron announced revenues down 23% Quarter on Quarter and guided down another 36% Q/Q for the current quarter. This shows what upcoming results...

Jim Handy

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Nanya Tech: Another Example of Capex Reduction, Major Share Price Divergence

Announced major reduction in capex is good news as the company is holding back volume expansion and focusing on higher value output.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Intel Vs. TSMC/​​​UMC Long/​​​Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation

TSMC guidance was strong and gives hope for 1H23 industry improvement. We perform an analysis based on cycle-adjusting the company's margins and PE.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Two Bits of Non-Bullish Toshiba News

Toshiba's possible deal timeline extended just as semi sector troubles start to make themselves better-known. Not bullish. But not hugely bearish....

Travis Lundy

Nanya Tech: Micron Results, Light at the End of the Tunnel? Shares Rise

Margin guidance implies Nanya Tech and Micron consensus numbers need to be reduced significantly, but Micron management comments provide positive...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron FYQ4: Bad, and About to Get Worse

Micron announced revenues down 23% Quarter on Quarter and guided down another 36% Q/Q for the current quarter. This shows what upcoming results...

Jim Handy

Intel Vs. TSMC/UMC Long/Short Monitor: Mgmt Call Takeaways, Calculating a Normalized Valuation