Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Jaws &amp; Operating Losses: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 4Q20 results of THB 2.4 bn, declining THB 1.6 bn (40.3%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were even worse, coming in at a negative THB 2.4 bn and declining THB 3.8 bn (2.7x) on a linked quarter basis. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and poor credit being the quarter’s themes; and *Credit Still Heading In Wrong Direction: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 22.5%. Given the elevated increase in net new NPLs, that moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that loss reserves are short by nearly THB 50.0 bn or just under two years of 4Q20 PBT.

*Negative Jaws &amp; Operating Losses: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 4Q20 results of THB 2.4 bn, declining THB 1.6 bn (40.3%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were even worse, coming in at a negative THB 2.4 bn and declining THB 3.8 bn (2.7x) on a linked quarter basis. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and poor credit being the quarter’s themes; and *Credit Still Heading In Wrong Direction: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 22.5%. Given the elevated increase in net new NPLs, that moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that loss reserves are short by nearly THB 50.0 bn or just under two years of 4Q20 PBT.

*Low Quality Beat: Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.TB) [SCB] reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result of THB 4.6 bn – up just THB 54 mn (1.2%) linked quarter. Were it not for strong linked quarter fee and commission growth of THB 2.8 bn (33.3%) which was primarily driven by the recognition of performance-linked compensation on bancassurance and wealth management bonus, 4Q20 results would have been an unmitigated disaster at SCB; and 
*Poor Credit and Consistently Higher Provisions To Persist: Credit trends at SCB are in complete contravention to Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB), as provisions actually increased THB 1.3 bn (9.9%) on weakened credit.SCB’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 63.2%. By our calculation, we find that SCB’s loss reserves are light in the neighborhood of THB 28 bn or 18 months of bottom-line results.

*Low Quality Beat: Siam Commercial Bank (SCB.TB) [SCB] reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result of THB 4.6 bn – up just THB 54 mn (1.2%) linked quarter. Were it not for strong linked quarter fee and commission growth of THB 2.8 bn (33.3%) which was primarily driven by the recognition of performance-linked compensation on bancassurance and wealth management bonus, 4Q20 results would have been an unmitigated disaster at SCB; and 
*Poor Credit and Consistently Higher Provisions To Persist: Credit trends at SCB are in complete contravention to Kasikornbank (KBANK.TB), as provisions actually increased THB 1.3 bn (9.9%) on weakened credit.SCB’s annualized net new NPLs during the period remained at an accelerated level of 63.2%. By our calculation, we find that SCB’s loss reserves are light in the neighborhood of THB 28 bn or 18 months of bottom-line results.

Siam Commercial Bank – B'assurance Masks Troubles

*Stress Continues: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK-R.TB) [KBANK] which suggests nothing positive is occurring. Credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief measures; and
*Weak Guidance: KBANK also reiterated guidance, although we weren’t left with a high degree of confidence that KBANK wouldn’t fall short in 2021.Coupled with the aforementioned credit challenges, we anticipate the roll forward of lower lending rates to continue to impact NIMs, as will the rising loan default rates.

*Stress Continues: A competitor hosted a conference call with the management of Kasikornbank PCL (KBANK-R.TB) [KBANK] which suggests nothing positive is occurring. Credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief measures; and
*Weak Guidance: KBANK also reiterated guidance, although we weren’t left with a high degree of confidence that KBANK wouldn’t fall short in 2021.Coupled with the aforementioned credit challenges, we anticipate the roll forward of lower lending rates to continue to impact NIMs, as will the rising loan default rates. 

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Capital Markets

Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust / Equity Capital Markets

Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust (SPALIRT TB)

Supalai, the country's second most valuable property company traditionally focused on the residential niche, is launching an IPO of its office REIT on Rama 3.<ul>
<li>
The IPO. As a norm, Thai REITs are initially priced at Bt10/unit. The initial asset size of Bt3.2bn implies a market cap of US$106m and 320m units. Jay Capital is Financial Advisor, with SPM as Property Manager, Adelphi as REIT Manager, and KTAM as Trustee.</li>
<li>
Assets and business. The asset is the 34-storey Supalai Grand Tower on Rama 3. The office building has an 88.5% occupancy rate. Utilities and parking space account for 7% and 5% of revenue respectively, and the main growth driver should be the 3% rental increase across most space.</li>
<li>
Valuations. Our valuation range is very tight at Bt11.5-11.7/unit, implying a 15-17% upside from IPO price. As an existing Supalai shareholder, we are planning to participate. Supalai itself should also benefit marginally from value crystallization.</li>
<li>
Key risks and limits. Key risks to the investment case includes potential loss of tenants, fund execution risk, land repossession, and macroeconomic risks. Property fees and maintenance fees are capped at 2.7% and 2% respectively.</li>
</ul>

Supalai, the country's second most valuable property company traditionally focused on the residential niche, is launching an IPO of its office REIT on Rama 3.

The IPO. As a norm, Thai REITs are initially priced at Bt10/unit. The initial asset size of Bt3.2bn implies a market cap of US$106m and 320m units. Jay Capital is Financial Advisor, with SPM as Property Manager, Adelphi as REIT Manager, and KTAM as Trustee.

Assets and business. The asset is the 34-storey Supalai Grand Tower on Rama 3. The office building has an 88.5% occupancy rate. Utilities and parking space account for 7% and 5% of revenue respectively, and the main growth driver should be the 3% rental increase across most space.

Valuations. Our valuation range is very tight at Bt11.5-11.7/unit, implying a 15-17% upside from IPO price. As an existing Supalai shareholder, we are planning to participate. Supalai itself should also benefit marginally from value crystallization.

Key risks and limits. Key risks to the investment case includes potential loss of tenants, fund execution risk, land repossession, and macroeconomic risks. Property fees and maintenance fees are capped at 2.7% and 2% respectively.


IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3

TQR, which is an acronym for Team Quality Relationship, is a new small-cap reinsurer that will IPO on the MAI, advised by Jay Capital. MCorp Review explored many aspects of this new and interesting company.<ul>
<li>
IPO is good for 230m shares or 26.1% of the company. Post-IPO, the founding Panipa family would be diluted to 44.4%, but still retain a strong controlling interest.</li>
<li>
Business. 35.8% of revenues came from traditional business, but the bulk from alternative business. TQR connects insurers such as Bangkok, Dhipya, and Maung Thai to reinsurers such as Swiss Re, Munich Re, and Thai Reinsurance.</li>
<li>
Valuations. We value TQR at Bt4.7/sh using DDM method. Given the much smaller size compared to TQM, we do not expect the same valuations, but its strong net cash position means that it can offer a very attractive dividend yield. Furthermore, it is a stock that potentially benefits from the pandemic.</li>
<li>
Key risks to our investment case includes: 1) pandemic; 2) credit ratings; 3) concentration risks; 4) competitive rivalry; 5) cyber attacks; and 6) regulatory risks.</li>
</ul>

TQR, which is an acronym for Team Quality Relationship, is a new small-cap reinsurer that will IPO on the MAI, advised by Jay Capital. MCorp Review explored many aspects of this new and interesting company.

IPO is good for 230m shares or 26.1% of the company. Post-IPO, the founding Panipa family would be diluted to 44.4%, but still retain a strong controlling interest.

Business. 35.8% of revenues came from traditional business, but the bulk from alternative business. TQR connects insurers such as Bangkok, Dhipya, and Maung Thai to reinsurers such as Swiss Re, Munich Re, and Thai Reinsurance.

Valuations. We value TQR at Bt4.7/sh using DDM method. Given the much smaller size compared to TQM, we do not expect the same valuations, but its strong net cash position means that it can offer a very attractive dividend yield. Furthermore, it is a stock that potentially benefits from the pandemic.

Key risks to our investment case includes: 1) pandemic; 2) credit ratings; 3) concentration risks; 4) competitive rivalry; 5) cyber attacks; and 6) regulatory risks.


IPO Radar: TQR, Small Cap Reinsurer With Strong Potential

Thailand

Bank of Ayudhya Public Co., Ltd., also known as Krungsri, is a leading commercial bank in Thailand providing a comprehensive range of universal banking services. It offers personal, corporate, and SME banking services, including auto loans, home loans, transaction accounts, investment banking, and treasury services. The bank is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was established in 1945.

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Bank of Ayudhya (BAY TB)

Bangkok Bank – Going Backward

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported weak 4Q20 results - declining 40.3% linked quarter. Results were poor across the board with negative operating jaws and...

Thomas J. Monaco

Siam Commercial Bank – B'assurance Masks Troubles

SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK: SCB reported an unimpressive 4Q20 result – up just 1.2% linked quarter. Were it not for strong bancassurance growth, 4Q20...

Thomas J. Monaco

Kasikornan – Unconvincing Call

KASIKORNBANK: KBANK 's credit risk remains elevated, yet half of current and projected loan growth will be used for current customer relief loans....

Thomas J. Monaco

IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3

Supalai REIT is another single asset REIT on Rama 3. Our valuation range is Bt11.5-11.7/unit, and we recommend participating in the IPO for the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

IPO Radar: TQR, Small Cap Reinsurer With Strong Potential

TQR is a new insurance reinsurer small cap IPO. Any price under Bt4.7/sh looks really compelling for a sector that benefits from the pandemic and a...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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