Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The six value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook</li>
<li>Of these, we believe Krung Thai Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also like Kasikorn Bank</li>
<li>We see TMBThanchart as an early stage “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, and push down its cost of risk sustainably to lower levels</li>
</ul>


The six value oriented Thai banks all have healthy credit quality, NPL coverage and sound capital adequacy ratios; in addition, encouraging cost of risk trends support the earnings outlook
Of these, we believe Krung Thai Bank screens well, with its attractive pre-provision and post-provision profitability versus peers, whilst trading on relatively undemanding multiples; we also like Kasikorn Bank
We see TMBThanchart as an early stage “turn around” stock, especially if management can improve credit quality, and push down its cost of risk sustainably to lower levels


Thai Banks Screener; Krung Thai and Kasikorn Are Our Top Picks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO in May 2021.</li>
<li>NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. </li>
<li>The lock-up on its two main shareholders will expire today.</li>
</ul>


Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO in May 2021.
NTL provides hire purchase loans for motorcycles and cars, along with new and used trucks. It also provides insurance brokerage services through its branches for non-life and life insurance. 
The lock-up on its two main shareholders will expire today.


Ngern Tid Lor IPO Lock-Up - A US$660m Overhang. Selldown Is a Question of When, Not If.

Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BOT’s pledge to issue virtual banking guidelines in June this year leads us to believe Thailand is finally ready to join the virtual banking era.  https://www.bot.or.th/landscape/files/consultation-paper-en.pdf</li>
<li>E-Commerce payments, remittances, and digital lending; all of which will facilitate the growth of tokenization in Thailand.</li>
<li>In this report, we look into Thailand’s virtual banking landscape.</li>
</ul>


BOT’s pledge to issue virtual banking guidelines in June this year leads us to believe Thailand is finally ready to join the virtual banking era.  https://www.bot.or.th/landscape/files/consultation-paper-en.pdf
E-Commerce payments, remittances, and digital lending; all of which will facilitate the growth of tokenization in Thailand.
In this report, we look into Thailand’s virtual banking landscape.


Virtual Banking: Thailand Is Finally Ready

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)</a>recently published a solid set of results reflecting the gradual recovery of its core banking business and increasing digitalisation of its customers base.</li>
<li>The real excitement will come with the formation of SCBX, involving the reallocation of excess capital, which will be invested in adjacent lending and high-growth technology businesses.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-commercial-bank-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1" rel="noopener">Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)</a>trades at a slight premium to peers on 0.92x FY2022E PBV but has the potential to generate higher returns, which should lead to further re-rating.</li>
</ul>



Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)recently published a solid set of results reflecting the gradual recovery of its core banking business and increasing digitalisation of its customers base.
The real excitement will come with the formation of SCBX, involving the reallocation of excess capital, which will be invested in adjacent lending and high-growth technology businesses.

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB)trades at a slight premium to peers on 0.92x FY2022E PBV but has the potential to generate higher returns, which should lead to further re-rating.


Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Let the Games Begin

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Weak Numerics: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.4 bn, declining THB 566 mn (8.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were far worse, however, coming in at THB 553 mn or down 86.2% over the same period; and*Credit Risk Remains Elevated: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period are THB 4.2 bn or 8.3% annualized. Given the increase in net new NPLs, moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that while loss reserves are hefty, the aggressive push to build reserves and de minimis NCOs despite the consistently high NPLs may suggest a big clean-up is coming.

*Weak Numerics: Bangkok Bank (BBL.TB) [BBL] reported 2Q21 bottom-line results of THB 6.4 bn, declining THB 566 mn (8.2%) on a linked quarter basis. Core operating results were far worse, however, coming in at THB 553 mn or down 86.2% over the same period; and*Credit Risk Remains Elevated: We find that BBL’s annualized net new NPLs during the period are THB 4.2 bn or 8.3% annualized. Given the increase in net new NPLs, moratorium credits are unknown and remain a wild card, and that COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc, we find that while loss reserves are hefty, the aggressive push to build reserves and de minimis NCOs despite the consistently high NPLs may suggest a big clean-up is coming.

Thailand

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited provides a full range of banking and financial services.  The Bank offers corporate and personal lending, retail and wholesale banking, international trade financing, asset management and investment banking services, to customers through its nationwide branches. It also has branches in Hong Kong, Vietnam, Laos, and Cayman Islands.

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Bank Of Ayudhya (BAY TB)

Thai Banks Screener; Krung Thai and Kasikorn Are Our Top Picks

Within this value group of Thai banks, and with GDP recovering, our picks are Krung Thai and Kasikornbank; Bank Ayudhya is attractive but less...

Victor Galliano

Ngern Tid Lor IPO Lock-Up - A US$660m Overhang. Selldown Is a Question of When, Not If.

Ngern Tid Lor (NTL), a financial service provider based in Thailand, raised around US$1bn in its Thailand IPO in May 2021. The lock-up on its two...

Sumeet Singh

Virtual Banking: Thailand Is Finally Ready

To get ready for Thailand's virtual banking license this year, we look into Thailand’s digital wallet landscape, microfinancing, and debt...

Bondcritic

Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB) - Let the Games Begin

Siam Commercial Bank trades at a slight premium to peers on 0.9x FY2022E PBV but has the potential to generate higher returns with the formation of...

Angus Mackintosh

Bangkok Bank – Rotten To The Core

BANGKOK BANK: BBL reported a 2Q21 QOQ core operating results decline of 86.2%. The increase in net new NPLs, unknown moratorium credits, and COVID...

Thomas J. Monaco

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