CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up, Wickhams Hill

Lloyd Moffatt

Pan-Asia Equity Bottom-up

<ul>
<li>ComfortDelGro (CD SP) announced further details surrounding the IPO of their Australian subsidiary, leading us to change our view on the potential value to be unlocked by the transaction</li>
<li>Dayamitra Telekomunikasi (Mitratel) is being spun out of Telkomsel (TLKM IJ) and targeting to raise US$ 1.76bn, with an implied market cap at listing of around US$5.2bn</li>
<li>Coincidentally, RHB has published an excellent report on Bali Towerindo (BALI IJ) which we think is the best positioned independent operator in the space due to their unique monetisation strategy and asset footprint.</li>
</ul>


ComfortDelGro (CD SP) announced further details surrounding the IPO of their Australian subsidiary, leading us to change our view on the potential value to be unlocked by the transaction
Dayamitra Telekomunikasi (Mitratel) is being spun out of Telkomsel (TLKM IJ) and targeting to raise US$ 1.76bn, with an implied market cap at listing of around US$5.2bn
Coincidentally, RHB has published an excellent report on Bali Towerindo (BALI IJ) which we think is the best positioned independent operator in the space due to their unique monetisation strategy and asset footprint.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 11

<ul>
<li>Comfort Delgro (CD SP) announced that they would be pursuing an ASX listing for their Australian subsidiary later this year.</li>
<li>We uncover the real reason underlying BAT Malaysia’s (ROTH MK) 60% fall since the beginning of last year and why it could double from here.</li>
<li>Recent IPO and Singapore newest market darling Nanofilm Technologies (NANO SP) fell almost 40% after paring their inaugural earnings miss with the COOs resignation.</li>
</ul>


Comfort Delgro (CD SP) announced that they would be pursuing an ASX listing for their Australian subsidiary later this year.
We uncover the real reason underlying BAT Malaysia’s (ROTH MK) 60% fall since the beginning of last year and why it could double from here.
Recent IPO and Singapore newest market darling Nanofilm Technologies (NANO SP) fell almost 40% after paring their inaugural earnings miss with the COOs resignation.


Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 5

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Equity Capital Markets

Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust / Equity Capital Markets

Supalai Real Estate Investment Trust (SPALIRT TB)

Supalai, the country's second most valuable property company traditionally focused on the residential niche, is launching an IPO of its office REIT on Rama 3.<ul>
<li>
The IPO. As a norm, Thai REITs are initially priced at Bt10/unit. The initial asset size of Bt3.2bn implies a market cap of US$106m and 320m units. Jay Capital is Financial Advisor, with SPM as Property Manager, Adelphi as REIT Manager, and KTAM as Trustee.</li>
<li>
Assets and business. The asset is the 34-storey Supalai Grand Tower on Rama 3. The office building has an 88.5% occupancy rate. Utilities and parking space account for 7% and 5% of revenue respectively, and the main growth driver should be the 3% rental increase across most space.</li>
<li>
Valuations. Our valuation range is very tight at Bt11.5-11.7/unit, implying a 15-17% upside from IPO price. As an existing Supalai shareholder, we are planning to participate. Supalai itself should also benefit marginally from value crystallization.</li>
<li>
Key risks and limits. Key risks to the investment case includes potential loss of tenants, fund execution risk, land repossession, and macroeconomic risks. Property fees and maintenance fees are capped at 2.7% and 2% respectively.</li>
</ul>

Supalai, the country's second most valuable property company traditionally focused on the residential niche, is launching an IPO of its office REIT on Rama 3.

The IPO. As a norm, Thai REITs are initially priced at Bt10/unit. The initial asset size of Bt3.2bn implies a market cap of US$106m and 320m units. Jay Capital is Financial Advisor, with SPM as Property Manager, Adelphi as REIT Manager, and KTAM as Trustee.

Assets and business. The asset is the 34-storey Supalai Grand Tower on Rama 3. The office building has an 88.5% occupancy rate. Utilities and parking space account for 7% and 5% of revenue respectively, and the main growth driver should be the 3% rental increase across most space.

Valuations. Our valuation range is very tight at Bt11.5-11.7/unit, implying a 15-17% upside from IPO price. As an existing Supalai shareholder, we are planning to participate. Supalai itself should also benefit marginally from value crystallization.

Key risks and limits. Key risks to the investment case includes potential loss of tenants, fund execution risk, land repossession, and macroeconomic risks. Property fees and maintenance fees are capped at 2.7% and 2% respectively.


IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3

Five recent interesting trends/news that could influence Thai equities/markets include:<ul>
<li>
Wutthisak Clinic files for bankruptcy. Once one of Thailand's most famous clinics for cosmetic surgery, the filing also has a domino effect on parent company EFORL and the reputation of Vichai Thongtaeng, one of Thailand's most famous investors.</li>
<li>
Supalai diversifies into Australia. On the expertise front, it seems like a risky venture, but given the weak prospects of Thai property and presence of local partners, it may be the right thing to do at this point.</li>
<li>
Small deal updates. In the shadow of CP Group's mega-takeover of Tesco Asia, Ratchaburi, IIG, SKY, and ACAP are all hatching deals of their own. Ootoya, a CENTEL-run brand in Thailand, is also fending a hostile takeover in Japan.</li>
<li>
New alliances. BSR consortium looks set to win two motorway contracts after pulling Gulf into the new alliance. </li>
<li>
KBS delays its plant construction, but their infrastructure fund's IPO still went on in early August. </li>
</ul>

Five recent interesting trends/news that could influence Thai equities/markets include:

Wutthisak Clinic files for bankruptcy. Once one of Thailand's most famous clinics for cosmetic surgery, the filing also has a domino effect on parent company EFORL and the reputation of Vichai Thongtaeng, one of Thailand's most famous investors.

Supalai diversifies into Australia. On the expertise front, it seems like a risky venture, but given the weak prospects of Thai property and presence of local partners, it may be the right thing to do at this point.

Small deal updates. In the shadow of CP Group's mega-takeover of Tesco Asia, Ratchaburi, IIG, SKY, and ACAP are all hatching deals of their own. Ootoya, a CENTEL-run brand in Thailand, is also fending a hostile takeover in Japan.

New alliances. BSR consortium looks set to win two motorway contracts after pulling Gulf into the new alliance. 

KBS delays its plant construction, but their infrastructure fund's IPO still went on in early August. 


Snippets #43: Wutthisak Clinic Bankruptcy, Supalai Goes Down Under

Thailand

Supalai Public Company Limited is a real estate development company in Thailand and Australia. It develops residential properties, including detached houses, duplex houses, townhouses, and condominiums under the Supalai brand, as well as office buildings, hotels, resorts, and shopping centers. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Supalai (SPALI TB)

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, five new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 11

ComfortDelGro (CD SP) announced further details surrounding the IPO of their Australian subsidiary, leading us to change our view on the potential...

Lloyd Moffatt

Wickhams Hill Research | Under-The-Radar Issue 5

Comfort Delgro (CD SP) announced that they would be pursuing an ASX listing for their Australian subsidiary later this year.

Lloyd Moffatt

IPO Radar: Supalai REIT, Office Tower Operator on Rama 3

Supalai REIT is another single asset REIT on Rama 3. Our valuation range is Bt11.5-11.7/unit, and we recommend participating in the IPO for the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Snippets #43: Wutthisak Clinic Bankruptcy, Supalai Goes Down Under

Five recent interesting trends/news that could influence Thai equities/markets include: Wutthisak Clinic files for bankruptcy. Once one of...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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52-week Range

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