Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. </li>
<li>JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire</li>
<li>Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments</li>
</ul>


Consumption is on the rebound as pandemic restrictions are lifted. Inflation has been higher than the 2% goal, but still not entrenched according to the BoJ. 
JGB yields drifted lower despite higher consumer inflation. Lower producer prices may hint that supply issues are normalizing. Stocks are on fire
Bulls adding to Japanese semiconductor equipment names. Global backdrop of AI but Japan also benefits as a "safe haven" destination for new capital investments


Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

<ul>
<li>Japanese equities were marginally higher on the week as global markets continued to focus on problems in the banking system</li>
<li>The Fed, The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank continued to fight the war on inflation.</li>
<li>In Japan, Recruit was the standout performer after the company announced a hefty cut to its workforce (in a bad news is good news kinda way)</li>
</ul>


Japanese equities were marginally higher on the week as global markets continued to focus on problems in the banking system
The Fed, The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank continued to fight the war on inflation.
In Japan, Recruit was the standout performer after the company announced a hefty cut to its workforce (in a bad news is good news kinda way)


Japan Weekly | Financials Still a Concern, Recruit, Toyota Industries

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fed Chair Powell delivers expected +25bps;  Hawkish pledge on inflation + Yellen's testimony rattles markets; Safety trade reasserts; Seems like more volatility ahead for all markets. </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.7% vs Cash; USDJPY strengthens to 131.4 n rush to safety; Monetary nomalization on course in Japan - solid Land price gains + continued wage hikes. </li>
<li>NUGGET. NIKON - Riding the Digital Camera Renaissance.  Camera demand has stabilizes and is recovering as consumers shift to high end models. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fed Chair Powell delivers expected +25bps;  Hawkish pledge on inflation + Yellen's testimony rattles markets; Safety trade reasserts; Seems like more volatility ahead for all markets. 
JAPAN. NKY Futs -1.7% vs Cash; USDJPY strengthens to 131.4 n rush to safety; Monetary nomalization on course in Japan - solid Land price gains + continued wage hikes. 
NUGGET. NIKON - Riding the Digital Camera Renaissance.  Camera demand has stabilizes and is recovering as consumers shift to high end models. 


Good Morning Japan |Yellen/Powell Rattles Markets; NUGGET: NIKON - Riding the DigiCam Renaissance

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Beta Roars back as SPX regains 4100 support; All SPX sector positive(ex-Energy); CPI in focus as US 2Yr Yields still at 4.5%; Fed Pause or Acceleration-is the question</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.0% vs Cash; Yen Weakens to 132.45 vs US;  JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback</li>
<li>DAILY NUGGET.  Buybacks been been certainly improving in Japan. But this action from Citizen Watch takes it to another level.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Beta Roars back as SPX regains 4100 support; All SPX sector positive(ex-Energy); CPI in focus as US 2Yr Yields still at 4.5%; Fed Pause or Acceleration-is the question
JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.0% vs Cash; Yen Weakens to 132.45 vs US;  JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback
DAILY NUGGET.  Buybacks been been certainly improving in Japan. But this action from Citizen Watch takes it to another level.


Good Morning Japan |Beta BACK-Ahead of CPI; Citizen Watch LEADS=>Massive Buyback; Toyota EV Shift?

Japan

Recruit Holdings Co. Ltd. operates information providing services in human resource, housing, bridal, travel, restaurants, beauty, automobiles, and education and more. The company also operate staffing services and advertising business.

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Recruit Holdings (6098 JP)

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Japan Weekly | Nikkei +4.8% to 31 Year High, Advantest, Recruit, Makita

The Nikkei 225 rose 4.8% and the Topix gained 3.1% on the week on signs of progress with the US debt ceiling, corporate updates, and foreign...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Financials Still a Concern, Recruit, Toyota Industries

We share weekly commentaries with investors on stocks on our watchlists that have appreciated or dropped more than 10% during the week.

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Yellen/Powell Rattles Markets; NUGGET: NIKON - Riding the DigiCam Renaissance

Fed Chair Powell delivers expected +25bps; Hawkish pledge on inflation + Yellen's testimony rattles markets; Safety trade reasserts; Seems like...

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan |Beta BACK-Ahead of CPI; Citizen Watch LEADS=>Massive Buyback; Toyota EV Shift?

JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes things up with Massive Buyback. JGB at 2% next year ? So says Koll; Citizen Watch shakes...

Mark Chadwick

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