IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In response to media reports, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a> confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>. No terms were disclosed.</li>
<li>According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. </li>
<li>The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media reports, Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU) confirmed receiving a non-binding proposal from Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). No terms were disclosed.
According to press reports, Rio aims to acquire Arcadium at a valuation range of US$4-6 billion (A$5.9-8.8 billion). Blackwattle thinks a fair price is closer to US$8 billion. 
The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.  


Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 27th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD27.6bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.4bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resources, Westpac, Gpt, Australian Clinical Labs, Aristocrat Leisure, James Hardie Industries Plc.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 13th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.4bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resources, Westpac, Gpt, Australian Clinical Labs, Aristocrat Leisure, James Hardie Industries Plc.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 13th): Mineral Resources, Westpac, Gpt, Australian Clinical Labs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 15th August, lithium play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/latin-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8770:1" rel="noopener">Latin Resources (LRS AU)</a></strong> entered into a<a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20240815/pdf/066mpcs6zd41jz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Scheme</a> with significantly larger peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</strong></a>. Timing appears fortuitous. </li>
<li>PLS is offering 0.07 new PLS shares for each LRS share held.  LRS shareholders will own ~6.4% of the combined entity. LRS' largest shareholder, José Luis Manzano (7.9%), is supportive. </li>
<li>The scrip terms back out an implied price of A$0.20/share or a 67% premium to last close. This is done. And trading accordingly. Expected implementation late November, early December.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 15th August, lithium play Latin Resources (LRS AU) entered into a Scheme with significantly larger peer, Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU). Timing appears fortuitous. 
PLS is offering 0.07 new PLS shares for each LRS share held.  LRS shareholders will own ~6.4% of the combined entity. LRS' largest shareholder, José Luis Manzano (7.9%), is supportive. 
The scrip terms back out an implied price of A$0.20/share or a 67% premium to last close. This is done. And trading accordingly. Expected implementation late November, early December.


Latin Resources (LRS AU)'s Scheme With Pilbara Minerals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pro-medicus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13516:1" rel="noopener">Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU)</a> will be added to the MV Australia Equal Weight Index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nib-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7063:1" rel="noopener">nib holdings (NHF AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a round-trip trade of A$330m.</li>
<li>Shorts are pretty big in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pro-medicus-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13516:1" rel="noopener">Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU)</a> while there has been a recent spike in short interest for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/igo-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:462:1" rel="noopener">IGO Ltd (IGO AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU) will be added to the MV Australia Equal Weight Index while IGO Ltd (IGO AU) and nib holdings (NHF AU) will be deleted.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a round-trip trade of A$330m.
Shorts are pretty big in Pro Medicus Ltd (PME AU) while there has been a recent spike in short interest for IGO Ltd (IGO AU). 


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

Australia

Mineral Resources Ltd. offers contract crushing services to the mining industry in Australia.  The Company serves gold, iron ore, tantalum, and coal companies.

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Mineral Resources (MIN AU)

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Rio Tinto’s Rumoured Bid Is Light

The rumoured valuation range is unattractive and arguably a bear case valuation assuming no significant recovery in lithium prices.

Arun George

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 27th): Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, Goodman, Santos.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 13th): Mineral Resources, Westpac, Gpt, Australian Clinical Labs

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resources, Westpac, Gpt, Australian...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Latin Resources (LRS AU)'s Scheme With Pilbara Minerals

Trading tight to terms Take down borrow cheaply on PLS, should the spread widen. Elsewhere, Liontown is trading at A$0.67/share vs. Albemarle's...

David Blennerhassett

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

PME is an add. NHF and IGO are deletes. Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 6.9% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

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