Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DeepSeek R1 is more than an open-source AI platform; it’s a geopolitical tool designed to reshape global collaboration, attract talent, and influence AI standards under the guise of transparency.</li>
<li>DeepSeek R1’s low-budget claim crafts the illusion of cost-efficiency, aimed at redirecting capital away from expensive U.S.-based AI ventures toward China’s AI ecosystem.</li>
<li>Launched during Trump’s inward-focused rhetoric, DeepSeek projects China as a viable, inclusive, and progressive alternative to the U.S., signaling a collaborative economic and trade option for nations.</li>
</ul>


DeepSeek R1 is more than an open-source AI platform; it’s a geopolitical tool designed to reshape global collaboration, attract talent, and influence AI standards under the guise of transparency.
DeepSeek R1’s low-budget claim crafts the illusion of cost-efficiency, aimed at redirecting capital away from expensive U.S.-based AI ventures toward China’s AI ecosystem.
Launched during Trump’s inward-focused rhetoric, DeepSeek projects China as a viable, inclusive, and progressive alternative to the U.S., signaling a collaborative economic and trade option for nations.


DeepSeek R1: An Attempt at Rearranging the World’s AI Furniture & Global Influence

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.</li>
<li>Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.</li>
<li>Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well</li>
</ul>


Smartphone 2024 small growth about +5% YoY. PC 2024 small unit growth +4%. Don’t expect much better in 2025 but the Silicon content will increase, both for processor and DRAM.
Lots of cuts in 2025 Semiconductor Capex. TSMC is up but Samsung, UMC, Intel down. Japan Semi Equipment association has revised down 2025 growth from 10% to 5%.
Cloud Capex booming. Microsoft announced US$80bn in FY25. Meta at US$60-65bn. TSMC to increase 5-3nm wafer price by 5-10%. The Ai segment of semiconductors is doing extremely well


Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. </li>
<li>Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. </li>
<li>Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. </li>
</ul>


The US election is the ultimate of known unknowns. The markets have endured both Trump and Biden/Harris so impactful policy surprises should be limited. 
Hedging cost are running high for Asian equities post August unwind and September stimulus combined with election. 
Markets have some momentum and in some cases mean reversion to the price move on the day after the election. 


EQD | US Election -  Hedge Considerations

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. </li>
<li>With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   </li>
<li>AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.</li>
</ul>


The rally of the Asia Tech sector (+24% YTD) is highly concentrated in a handful of stocks. TSMC is up 64% but Samsung is down -22% YTD. 
With the exception of AI, end-demand isn’t great. Smartphone up 8% but below 2019-21 level. PC flattish. x86 Server flattish. Telecom capex declining. Automotive electronics declining.   
AI is the most disruptive trend since Cloud in 2010. Years of increasing Capex are in front of us. But short-term, stocks are properly valued to rich, growth is slowing.


All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42</li>
<li>Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to "accelerate AI development and global expansion"</li>
<li>G42 "severed its ties" with China in advance of the Microsoft investment</li>
</ul>


Cerebras presently derives up to 87% of its revenue from G42
Microsoft gatecrashed Cerebras party with a $1.5 billion investment in G42 to "accelerate AI development and global expansion"
G42 "severed its ties" with China in advance of the Microsoft investment


Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)

DeepSeek R1: An Attempt at Rearranging the World’s AI Furniture & Global Influence

DeepSeek R1 is more than AI; it's a geopolitical tool reshaping global influence. Its low-budget claim fosters an illusion of cost-efficiency,...

Pyari Menon

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Cerebras gets up to 87% of its revenue from G42. G42 "severed its ties" with China, opening the door for a $1.5 billion Microsoft investment to...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

DeepSeek R1: An Attempt at Rearranging the World’s AI Furniture & Global Influence

DeepSeek R1 is more than AI; it's a geopolitical tool reshaping global influence. Its low-budget claim fosters an illusion of cost-efficiency,...

Pyari Menon

Tech News: Smartphone and PC Stabilize. Semicon Capex Cuts. Cloud Capex Up. TSMC Increasing Prices.

​Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

Nicolas Baratte

EQD | US Election - Hedge Considerations

​The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

John Ley

All Is Not Well in Tech Sector, AI Growth Slows, TSMC Expensive. Samsung, SK Hynix More Attractive.

Difficult juncture for ​Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...

Nicolas Baratte

Cerebras Files Intent To IPO. This Will Be Interesting

Cerebras gets up to 87% of its revenue from G42. G42 "severed its ties" with China, opening the door for a $1.5 billion Microsoft investment to...

William Keating

Smartphone and PC small growth in 2024 and 2025, but Silicon content in processors and DRAM will increase. Semiconductor Capex cuts in 2025. Cloud...

The US election brings uncertainty, but market impact should be limited due to enduring Trump and Biden/Harris policies. Asian equities face high...

Difficult juncture for Asia Tech. Consumer and Enterprise segments are flattish; stocks have underperformed. AI is the only growth driver, growth...