Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. </li>
<li>The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.</li>
<li>This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) had a great run this year, since Trump's Liberation Day in April 2025, but seems to be stalling as of lately. 
The index started correcting this week, after a 3-week rally, the interest rate decision by the BOJ this Friday (most likely a hike) could increase volatility.
This insight will try to define the best entry zones in case the index falls further in the next few days, weeks. 


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Outlook Ahead of Friday's BOJ Rate Decision

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

<ul>
<li>Sustained pressure from the JPX initiative targeting firms trading below P/B is forcing enhanced capital returns (buybacks and dividends), creating opportunity across both indices.</li>
<li>BoJ's shift to a positive rate environment is fundamentally restoring Net Interest Income and profitability to the Financials sector, positioning the TOPIX, in particular, for outperformance.</li>
<li>AI/Tech Sector Dominance: The Nikkei 225 is driven by high-tech firms. This concentration, led by high-priced high weighted stocks like Advantest and Softbank Group, provides high-beta AI exposure</li>
</ul>


Sustained pressure from the JPX initiative targeting firms trading below P/B is forcing enhanced capital returns (buybacks and dividends), creating opportunity across both indices.
BoJ's shift to a positive rate environment is fundamentally restoring Net Interest Income and profitability to the Financials sector, positioning the TOPIX, in particular, for outperformance.
AI/Tech Sector Dominance: The Nikkei 225 is driven by high-tech firms. This concentration, led by high-priced high weighted stocks like Advantest and Softbank Group, provides high-beta AI exposure


2026 High Conviction - Japan's Triple Play: How PBR Reform, AI, and Banks Unlock Alpha

<ul>
<li>Gold's outlook is strongly supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, structural de-dollarization trends, and increasing central bank demand for a strategic stagflation hedge.</li>
<li>The Nikkei 225's high is vulnerable to concentrated risk in the technology sector and geopolitical volatility, necessitating a tactical approach to portfolio protection.</li>
<li>Deep dive into a two-part portfolio-defensive structure, pairing a strategic long-term inflation asset with a short-term volatility hedge on a key equity index.</li>
</ul>


Gold's outlook is strongly supported by a dovish Federal Reserve, structural de-dollarization trends, and increasing central bank demand for a strategic stagflation hedge.
The Nikkei 225's high is vulnerable to concentrated risk in the technology sector and geopolitical volatility, necessitating a tactical approach to portfolio protection.
Deep dive into a two-part portfolio-defensive structure, pairing a strategic long-term inflation asset with a short-term volatility hedge on a key equity index.


A Global Portfolio Inflation-Stagflation Hedge: Gold and NK Index Volatility

<ul>
<li>
Japan's Q3 GDP shrank 1.8% vs forecast 2.5% (annualised), while consumption slowed to 0.1%. This is the first contraction in six quarter.
</li>
<li>
The cause is the drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs, automakers in particular plummeted, following a period of hiking exports before tariffs came into effect.</li>
<li>We've consistently flagged the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as overbought. This tactical short-term analysis pinpoints critical support (and resistance, but we think the index may fall).</li>
</ul>



Japan's Q3 GDP shrank 1.8% vs forecast 2.5% (annualised), while consumption slowed to 0.1%. This is the first contraction in six quarter.


The cause is the drop in exports in the face of U.S. tariffs, automakers in particular plummeted, following a period of hiking exports before tariffs came into effect.
We've consistently flagged the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as overbought. This tactical short-term analysis pinpoints critical support (and resistance, but we think the index may fall).


Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook After Japan's Economy Contracts on Tariff Hit

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)