Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a>  and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)</a>  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Most of the U.S. and Asian stocks we track are overbought, with Asian markets showing the strongest overbought conditions. 


Meta (META US)  and the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300)  offer bargain-hunting opportunities for tactical investors.



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a>, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).</li>
<li>The date  of replacement is November 5, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.</li>
<li>At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.</li>
</ul>


As reported by Brian Freitas, the JPX on Oct 27 suddenly announced that Nidec Corp (6594 JP) would be deleted from the Nikkei 225 and replaced by Ibiden (4062 JP).
The date  of replacement is November 5, the Nikkei will experience passive flows, in this insight we want to have a look at the possible moves caused by this catalyst.
At the moment the index is overbought, according to our models.


Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.</li>
<li>
This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don't be too eager to enter early.</li>
<li>
The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei</a> could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.
</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) dived to 46544 on Tuesday, after peaking at 48.5k last week. It was ultra-overbought.

This correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally (or enter the rally, if you missed it), but don't be too eager to enter early.

The Nikkei could correct easily for 2,3 or even 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered, according to our TIME MODEL. 43.5k may be the right area, details in insight.



Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has reached eye-popping valuations, a 20% rally from the end of June into early October (40k to 48k).</li>
<li>Our forecast is always short-term, 3-5 weeks horizon, so we cannot say if the index will continue to rally in 2026, but right now it's OVERBOUGHT.</li>
<li>We expect a pullback soon, you can buy the pullback, we discuss the support areas in the insight.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has reached eye-popping valuations, a 20% rally from the end of June into early October (40k to 48k).
Our forecast is always short-term, 3-5 weeks horizon, so we cannot say if the index will continue to rally in 2026, but right now it's OVERBOUGHT.
We expect a pullback soon, you can buy the pullback, we discuss the support areas in the insight.


Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

<ul>
<li>Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.</li>
<li>OVERBOUGHT: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>OVERSOLD: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Multi-Week forecasts for the Asian indices and stocks we track, based on our proprietary probability model.
OVERBOUGHT: Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) 
OVERSOLD: China Mobile (941 HK) , Fast Retailing (9983 JP)



Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance

JPX announced Ibiden will replace Nidec Corp in Nikkei 225 on Nov 5, this will generate passive flows and move the index: currently overbought...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Nico Rosti

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?(Nov 4, 2025)

Our probabilistic analysis shows extreme overbought conditions across both US and Asian equities, with Asia being the most overheated. META and CSI...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Outlook After Surprise Nov 5 Rebalance

​JPX announced Ibiden will replace Nidec Corp in Nikkei 225 on Nov 5, this will generate passive flows and move the index: currently overbought...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Setup: BUY The Bottom, Not the Dip!

​The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei 225 (NKY) Tactical Outlook: Flying Too High...

​The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Nico Rosti

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 29-Oct 3

​Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...

Nico Rosti

JPX announced Ibiden will replace Nidec Corp in Nikkei 225 on Nov 5, this will generate passive flows and move the index: currently overbought...

The Nikkei 225 index's correction offers an opportunity to re-enter the rally at discounted prices, but timing is key: it could last 2-4 weeks. A...

The Nikkei 225 has surged 20% since June, it's overbought. Our WEEKLY models say "ultra-overbought". We are forecasting a pullback soon, possibily...

Multi-week forecasts for Asian indices and stocks show Samsung Electronics, Softbank Group, Toyota Motor, and Nikkei 225 as overbought, while...