TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Roblox was crushed on 4Q21 earnings, owing to a weak guidance for January due to tough Covid comps.</li>
<li>We think the selloff is overdone given the still strong user growth and the "of course" normalization that was due to occur after incredible growth for the past two years.</li>
<li>Once growth normalizes midyear, the platform narrative will resume as reaccelerating core growth and 2023 advertising growth comes into view. A likely double from here.</li>
</ul>


Roblox was crushed on 4Q21 earnings, owing to a weak guidance for January due to tough Covid comps.
We think the selloff is overdone given the still strong user growth and the "of course" normalization that was due to occur after incredible growth for the past two years.
Once growth normalizes midyear, the platform narrative will resume as reaccelerating core growth and 2023 advertising growth comes into view. A likely double from here.


Roblox 4Q21: Metaverse or Optical Illusion?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Microsoft took the gaming world by storm through its announcement of acquiring Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, using up nearly half of its cash reserves to make it the third-largest game developer in the world behind Tencent and Sony.</li><li>The company experienced a record quarter, owing to the continued strength of the Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $22 billion in revenue, up 32% year over year.</li><li>Among the other key highlights, Microsoft introduced Windows 11 SE, a cloud-first operating system designed specifically for schools this quarter.</li></ul>

Microsoft took the gaming world by storm through its announcement of acquiring Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, using up nearly half of its cash reserves to make it the third-largest game developer in the world behind Tencent and Sony.The company experienced a record quarter, owing to the continued strength of the Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $22 billion in revenue, up 32% year over year.Among the other key highlights, Microsoft introduced Windows 11 SE, a cloud-first operating system designed specifically for schools this quarter.

Microsoft Inc.: The Activision Blizzard Acquisition & Other Drivers 02/22

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>It was reported on 2/9 that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) increased its stake in NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) to 6.69%, which currently represents 808 billion won ($670 million).</li>
<li>This investment comes right after it was reported in the past several days ago that Saudi Arabia's PIF purchased a 5% stake in Nexon (3659 JP) for $883 million.</li>
<li><strong>Saudi Arabia's PIF investing NCsoft and Nexon as well as launching Savvy Gaming Group (SGG) are likely to renew increased interest in the recently beaten down Asian game stocks. </strong></li>
</ul>


It was reported on 2/9 that Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) increased its stake in NCSOFT Corp (036570 KS) to 6.69%, which currently represents 808 billion won ($670 million).
This investment comes right after it was reported in the past several days ago that Saudi Arabia's PIF purchased a 5% stake in Nexon (3659 JP) for $883 million.
Saudi Arabia's PIF investing NCsoft and Nexon as well as launching Savvy Gaming Group (SGG) are likely to renew increased interest in the recently beaten down Asian game stocks. 


Saudi Arabia's PIF Launches Savvy Gaming Group and Buys 6.7% of NCsoft & 5% of Nexon

<ul>
<li>Prime price increased, Covid expenses starting to moderate, margins set to rise.</li>
<li>Fulfillment buildout moderates, 1-day shipping can now launch more widely, share gains will ensue, revenue growth will reaccelerate.</li>
<li>We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.</li>
</ul>


Prime price increased, Covid expenses starting to moderate, margins set to rise.
Fulfillment buildout moderates, 1-day shipping can now launch more widely, share gains will ensue, revenue growth will reaccelerate.
We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long idea. We think its worth $6,000.


Amazon 4Q21: Don’t Call It a Comeback, We’ve Been Here (Investing) For Years

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. </li>
<li>In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. </li>
<li>Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.</li>
</ul>


Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were on the sceptical side given various signs of trouble at the company. 
In contrast the majority of commentary on the deal has been somewhere between positive and euphoric though there are monopoly concerns from customers. 
Yet the more we examine the implications the less we like this deal for Microsoft.


Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Roblox 4Q21: Metaverse or Optical Illusion?

2-3% MoM billings growth in January was the (negative) headline, but continued strong DAU growth and Hours Engaged are proof that the underlying...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft Inc.: The Activision Blizzard Acquisition & Other Drivers 02/22

Microsoft took the gaming world by storm through its announcement of acquiring Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, using up nearly half of its...

Baptista Research

Saudi Arabia's PIF Launches Savvy Gaming Group and Buys 6.7% of NCsoft & 5% of Nexon

Saudi Arabia's PIF investing NCsoft and Nexon as well as launching Savvy Gaming Group (SGG) are likely to renew increased interest in the recently...

Douglas Kim

Amazon 4Q21: Don’t Call It a Comeback, We’ve Been Here (Investing) For Years

Reaccelerating growth, better than expected margins and FCF in 2022-2023, and a catchup trade on the come. We reiterate Amazon as our Top 2022 long...

Aaron Gabin

Microsoft – Thinking Through the ATVI Acquisition Further

Our initial thoughts on Microsoft’s bid for Activision Blizzard were sceptical in contrast to the majority of commentary on the deal. The more we...

Mio Kato

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