Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Cross Asset Strategy

<div class="content-highlight">
On 9 April, the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/southkorea-nps/update-1-s-koreas-pension-fund-adjusts-rules-to-raise-domestic-equity-allocation-idUSL1N2M20EN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NPS</a> announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.
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On 9 April, the NPS announced that it will change rules to increase the allocation of Korean stocks, which would be the first time in a decade. This adjustment could be implemented starting next week. This change comes after a lot of pressure by the retail investors.
NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%, increasing the percentage of Korean stocks it can hold from the current band of 14.8% -18.8% (+/- 2% with 16.8% as base) to 13.8% -19.8% (+/- 3% with 16.8% as base). NPS's target of the domestic equity allocation is 16.8% (of total fund amount). As a result of this change, the sale of domestic stocks by the NPS is expected to slow down.


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated holding was USD1,774.5bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD14,741mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SKSQUARE, SamsungElecMech, Samsung Elec (PREF).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated holding was USD1,774.5bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD14,741mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SKSQUARE, SamsungElecMech, Samsung Elec (PREF).


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 3rd): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SKSQUARE, SamsungElecMech

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtn-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24897:1" rel="noopener">MTN Group Ltd (MTN SJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vale-sa-7721577f-6c6a-4536-a829-92551c2bcd7f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27725:1" rel="noopener">Vale SA (VALE3 BZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petroleo-brasileiro-sa-1cc9bae4-1206-4157-b187-d2f98d7b3b2b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27684:1" rel="noopener">Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4 BZ)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:Mediatek Inc (2454 TT), Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS), ByteDance (1460967D CH), MTN Group Ltd (MTN SJ), Reliance Industries (RIL IN), Vale SA (VALE3 BZ), Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4 BZ) 

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 5 February 2021

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

<ul>
<li>While short-term data has been out of favour as the market envisions a post-vaccine supercycle, our text-mining detects greater relative concern on Korean in the financial media over KRW strength and COVID case counts in recent weeks</li>
<li>Japan, for example, saw similar concerns emerge on surging case counts, but news sentiment has been supported by the recent 40tr JPY stimulus package vs. limited Korean measures</li>
<li>KRW/USD's +10% move is equivalent +2x STDEVs, similar to the magnitude of CNY appreciation in the same period, vs. low single-digit moves in JPY and TWD</li>
<li>Consensus suggests foreign inflows associated with a strong KRW are likely to push the KOSPI higher even if exporter earnings (and exports) are hampered by the currency</li>
<li>While we acknowledge the macro impact of COVID resurgence is merely transitory, a key driver in our recent news attribution is the sharp decline in Korean credit card spending as reported by Shinhan for the second half of November</li>
<li>Less transitory is the KRW, and 801 Korean exporters recent polled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) suggested the currency is already beyond their pain threshold</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


While short-term data has been out of favour as the market envisions a post-vaccine supercycle, our text-mining detects greater relative concern on Korean in the financial media over KRW strength and COVID case counts in recent weeks
Japan, for example, saw similar concerns emerge on surging case counts, but news sentiment has been supported by the recent 40tr JPY stimulus package vs. limited Korean measures
KRW/USD's +10% move is equivalent +2x STDEVs, similar to the magnitude of CNY appreciation in the same period, vs. low single-digit moves in JPY and TWD
Consensus suggests foreign inflows associated with a strong KRW are likely to push the KOSPI higher even if exporter earnings (and exports) are hampered by the currency
While we acknowledge the macro impact of COVID resurgence is merely transitory, a key driver in our recent news attribution is the sharp decline in Korean credit card spending as reported by Shinhan for the second half of November
Less transitory is the KRW, and 801 Korean exporters recent polled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) suggested the currency is already beyond their pain threshold
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot:  Text-Mining Detects Potential Pullback in Korea Sentiment on KRW Rally & COVID Surge

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

South Korea

Kia Corporation manufactures, sells, and exports passenger cars, mini-buses, trucks and commercial vehicles. The Company also manufactures auto-parts and tools using hybrid electric and fuel cell technology. Kia markets its products worldwide.

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Kia Corp (000270 KS)

NPS Raises Domestic Equity Allocations

NPS increased the strategic asset allocation (SAA) limit for domestic equities from the current 2% to 3%. As a result of this change, the sale of...

Douglas Kim

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Jul 3rd): Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SKSQUARE, SamsungElecMech

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, SKSQUARE,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 5 February 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining Detects Potential Pullback in Korea Sentiment on KRW Rally & COVID Surge

Our text-mining detects a potential pullback in Korea macro sentiment on rapid KRW appreciation and the COVID surge impacting credit card spending,...

Elan Gore

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

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