Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Wisdomtree Japan Hedged Eq / Technical Analysis

<p>Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.</p>

Market dynamics continue to send mixed signals, but the bottom line is that not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Additionally, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE indexes all remain above critical support levels. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish. It is also worth noting that various indicators could be making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a potential false breakdown in crude oil, and high yield spreads leveling-out.

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p></div><p>Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron (6645 JP)</a>. </p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/334/original/2020-10-30_06-23-20.png?1604006632" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168334"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/168/335/original/2020-10-30_06-29-10.png?1604006963" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="168335"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>156 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 51% Positive / 4% Neutral / 45% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>A<strong>verage Results Score Change:</strong> +0.2 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.1ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 15%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>84 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 51% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 51% Positive / 3% Neutral / 46% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -0.0 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS156 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 51% Positive / 4% Neutral / 45% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +0.2 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -5.7% Quarter YoY / -5.3% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 15%
84 Annual • 35 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 45% Positive / 6% Neutral / 51% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 51% Positive / 3% Neutral / 46% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.0 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

<p>While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: <strong>Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation</strong></p>

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

<p>Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.</p>

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This bullish price action combined with market dynamics which remain mostly healthy lead us to believe the lows of this recent correction are in. Consumer Discretionary and Manufacturing Sectors continue to be two attractive Sectors that are outperforming globally; we highlight numerous actionable names in today's report.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/490/original/2020-07-29_05-46-56.png?1595972235" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148490"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/491/original/2020-07-29_05-47-39.png?1595972270" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148491"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>OUTLIERS</strong> - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:280:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)</a> and the FA business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>.  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/493/original/2020-07-29_06-48-44.png?1595972935" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148493"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/494/original/2020-07-29_06-49-07.png?1595972973" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148494"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>55 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -3.4</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.0ppt</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 31%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><br><strong>23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score</strong>: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -9.8</li>
</ul></div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsOUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's case - the SPE business of Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) and the FA business of Fanuc (6954 JP).  The latter's forecast, if achieved, would take their incremental operating profit margin to -2,631. While the market has over-reacted to TEL's stability, many, including this writer, have been overly complacent about the pace Fanuc's recovery. The SPE and FAA business cycles are no longer synchronised, and Fanuc's valuations have yet to adjust to that new reality.Source • Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS55 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 1 Neutral / 40 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.4

Average % Change in Revenue: -11.8% Quarter YoY / -2.4% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.0ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 31%
 23 Annual • 17 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 7 Positive / 0 Neutral / 16 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 4 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -9.8


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

Japan

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Omron Corp (6645 JP)

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts & tables:...

Campbell Gunn

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Critical Supports Holding in the US, Europe, & Japan; Buying Health Care, Utilities, Materials, Tech

Various indicators are making a turn for the better, including early signs of interest rates bottoming in the US and Germany, a false breakdown in...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera

• BEST & WORST • Our best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is Fanuc (6954 JP) and Omron (6645 JP). Source for all charts & tables:...

Campbell Gunn

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy:

Key $70 support on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) held strong last week, and ACWI-US is now inflecting topside its bullish falling wedge pattern. This...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 28th July - TEL, Fanuc, Canon, Nissan, Shin-Etsu, Omron

OUTLIERS - This quarter's results are highlighting the wide variances in performance between companies in the same thematic basket - in yesterday's...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/29 - Fanuc, Takeda, Panasonic, Kyocera