Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.</li>
<li>In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. </li>
<li>Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.</li>
</ul>


Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here's the hedging model.


Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/noritsu-koki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3091:1" rel="noopener">Noritsu Koki (7744 JP)</a> just sold two-thirds of its stake in subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC Inc (4483 JP)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> for ¥112bn - pretty good for a ¥61bn marketcap.</li>
<li>This is the payday for those who have been long NK as a proxy for JMDC and possibly short JMDC against it. Now the shape of the company is different.</li>
<li>A closer look at the pro-forma financial profile is warranted. It's a lot of money. BUT... if you look today and buy today you do NOT get the special div!
</li>
</ul>



Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) just sold two-thirds of its stake in subsidiary JMDC Inc (4483 JP) to Omron Corp (6645 JP) for ¥112bn - pretty good for a ¥61bn marketcap.
This is the payday for those who have been long NK as a proxy for JMDC and possibly short JMDC against it. Now the shape of the company is different.
A closer look at the pro-forma financial profile is warranted. It's a lot of money. BUT... if you look today and buy today you do NOT get the special div!



Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.</li>
<li>It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. </li>
<li>Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.</li>
</ul>


After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off.
It did so slowly, however and was outperforming Nikkei when last we checked despite being down slightly. 
Thankfully, a lot of the idiosyncratic volatility hurting the skew trade has reversed now and it is positive and outperforming Nikkei consistently.


TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Omron reported its 3QFY22 results on 28th January which saw revenues of ¥190.9bn (+5.8% QoQ, +13.4% YoY) and OP of ¥19.2bn. </li>
<li>The reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than the consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. </li>
<li>This weakness also lead to a downgrade in guidance the size of which was a touch surprising.</li>
</ul>


Omron reported its 3QFY22 results on 28th January which saw revenues of ¥190.9bn (+5.8% QoQ, +13.4% YoY) and OP of ¥19.2bn. 
The reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than the consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. 
This weakness also lead to a downgrade in guidance the size of which was a touch surprising.


Omron – Downgrade on Normalising Profitability

Keyence has been our boring top pick within the factory automation sector for some time and has boringly and consistently outperformed peers. We still consider it the highest quality name within the sector but given valuations, we are reluctantly disembarking here.

Keyence has been our boring top pick within the factory automation sector for some time and has boringly and consistently outperformed peers. We still consider it the highest quality name within the sector but given valuations, we are reluctantly disembarking here.

Keyence – Time to Step Off and Some Warning Signs for Markets

Japan

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

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Omron Corp (6645 JP)

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

The Bank of Kyoto (8369) model is clarified so dynamic hedging ratios depend on regional bank PBRs. The model suggests it's at the cheap end of its...

Travis Lundy

Noritsu Koki (7744) - PAAAAYDAAAAY!

Noritsu Koki (7744) just got paid. They got ¥112bn for 2/3 of their stake in JMDC (4483), hold 15.7% still, now have net cash, and ongoing...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade Starting to Work Nicely

After initially grinding up slowly but underperforming the Nikkei our suggested skew trade gave up ground during the new year sell off. It is now...

Mio Kato

Omron – Downgrade on Normalising Profitability

Omron's reported results were 0.6% and 17.1% lower than consensus estimates for revenue and OP respectively. This weakness lead to a downgrade in...

Mio Kato

Keyence – Time to Step Off and Some Warning Signs for Markets

Keyence has been our top pick in the FA sector and has outperformed peers consistently but while we still consider it the highest quality name...

Mio Kato

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