Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Chipmakers with existing fabs or plans for US expansion will be exempt from the tariffs as Trump pushes his onshoring agenda.</li>
<li>Intel, AMAT, GlobalFoundries are all higher afterhours which should ultimately bide well for JP SPE suppliers.</li>
<li>Power-Semi's are increasingly important for AI which makes the WOLF/Renesas connection look increasingly attractive.</li>
</ul>


Chipmakers with existing fabs or plans for US expansion will be exempt from the tariffs as Trump pushes his onshoring agenda.
Intel, AMAT, GlobalFoundries are all higher afterhours which should ultimately bide well for JP SPE suppliers.
Power-Semi's are increasingly important for AI which makes the WOLF/Renesas connection look increasingly attractive.


Japan Morning Connection: Trump Threatens 100% Chip Tariffs While Tim Cook Kisses the Ring

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applied-materials-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:283:1" rel="noopener">Applied Materials (AMAT US)</a> will become the largest shareholder in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> after the placement.</li>
<li>There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


KKR HKE Investment is offering 30m shares (12.86% of shares out) of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) in a secondary offering that could raise up to JPY 91bn (US$620m).

Applied Materials (AMAT US) will become the largest shareholder in Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) after the placement.
There will not be a lot of buying from passive trackers following the placement, but it could ease the way for inclusion of the stock in the Nikkei 225 Index.


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 25th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD15,503m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Toyota Motor, Lasertec, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Marui, Sanrio, Disco, Kawasaki Heavy Industries.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

<ul>
<li>Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.</li>
<li>Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.</li>
<li>Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".</li>
</ul>


Screen numbers a headline miss but outlook for guidance hike over 2Q numbers remains.
Shin Etsu drop on back of PVC weakness could be short lived on a more dovish outcome.
Renesas down after numbers with market wanting more clarity over comments that 2026 remains "unclear".


Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

<ul>
<li>STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.</li>
<li>Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.</li>
<li>Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.</li>
</ul>


STM adds to the gloom for power semis after surprise loss and -16% drop. Fuji Elec and Renesas report today in Japan.
Dow -18% after tariff uncertainty hist exports sending peers lower. Watch Shin Etsu despite its more PVC focus.
Intel's new CEO struggling to turn the ship around with a competitive AI offering still a ways off.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Threatens 100% Chip Tariffs While Tim Cook Kisses the Ring

Trump threatenes 100% tarriffs on all chip imports, Apple announces it will invest further on US manufacturing for tariff exemptions, Japan SPE may...

Andrew Jackson

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

Kokusai Electric has traded in a tight range following its placement. 50m shares have traded since then vs the 30m placement shares. The stock has...

Brian Freitas

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 25th): Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Fast Retailing

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Japan Morning Connection: EU Trade Deal Should Help JP Names with High European Exposure Gain

Screen's numbers were a miss which might open a buy the dip opportunity. Reaction to Shin Etsu guidance may have been excessive. Names with high EU...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Tape for Semi's with AI up and Power and Industrial Down Further

Big moves lower for power semi peers should see JP names lower, Intel failing to impress may follow through to Ibiden, IBM slumped but analyst...

Andrew Jackson

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