Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.</li>
<li>The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.</li>
</ul>


A group of 7 shareholders are looking to sell 61.3m shares in Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) to raise JPY 143.8bn (US$916m). That is 3.3% of shares outstanding.
The shares are being offered at a price range of JPY 2296-2345.5/share, a discount of 5-7% to the last close of the stock.
With the offering less than 5% of shares outstanding and less than US$1bn in size, there is no immediate passive buying and there could be further weakness in the stock.


Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Market looking past new US semi restrictions with semi majors recovering off pre-market lows.</li>
<li>Earnings beat for KB Homes a shot in the arm for embattled Homebuilders... watch Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House for upside.</li>
<li>FA major Yaskawa numbers on Friday were a miss, but signs of a bottoming emerging.</li>
</ul>


Market looking past new US semi restrictions with semi majors recovering off pre-market lows.
Earnings beat for KB Homes a shot in the arm for embattled Homebuilders... watch Sumitomo Forestry and Sekisui House for upside.
FA major Yaskawa numbers on Friday were a miss, but signs of a bottoming emerging.


Japan Morning Connection: Persistent US Tech Weakness, but off the Days Lows

<ul>
<li>Yesterday saw a notable rotation out of recent momentum winners in Japan towards oversold quality such as SPE.</li>
<li>EU defence names generally stronger on concerns over Trumps Greenland/Denmark comments may be mild positive for JP heavies.</li>
<li>Power semi weakness in the US at least partially over news Renesas is cutting workforce on weak auto chip sales.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday saw a notable rotation out of recent momentum winners in Japan towards oversold quality such as SPE.
EU defence names generally stronger on concerns over Trumps Greenland/Denmark comments may be mild positive for JP heavies.
Power semi weakness in the US at least partially over news Renesas is cutting workforce on weak auto chip sales.


Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a> placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.</li>
<li>The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.</li>
<li>We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.</li>
</ul>


The Sanrio (8136 JP) placement is likely to be priced today. With the stock 8.8% lower from undisturbed, expect a small discount to today's close.
The stock has traded as expected over the last 9 trading days - a sharp drop followed by a strong upward move and then profit taking.
We expect there will be strong interest in the placement and oversubscription could lead to upside from here. Shorts have increased and will look to cover into the placement.


Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sanrio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16476:1" rel="noopener">Sanrio (8136 JP)</a>’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).</li>
<li>It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the US$840 million secondary offering, Sanrio (8136 JP)’s shares have been down 3.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,160 per share (26 November).
It is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Sanrio’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.


Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) - No Immediate Passive Buying Could Lead to More Weakness

A group of 7 holders are selling US$916m of stock at a 5-7% discount to last. That is 3.3% of shares out and 12.4x ADV. There is no passive buying...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Persistent US Tech Weakness, but off the Days Lows

Semi majors recovering despite new US semi restrictions, KB Homes' earnings positive for homebuilders, Yaskawa numbers miss but has signs of...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Can JP Semi-Cap Names Continue to Buck the US Tech Weakness?

Rotation from momentum winners into oversold quality such as SPE, EU defense name strength may be positive for JP heavies, US power semi weakness...

Andrew Jackson

Sanrio (8136 JP) Placement: Price Likely Determined Today; What Next?

Sanrio is now trading 21% higher than the placement price and has outperformed the TOPIX handily. The stock is very close to levels where it could...

Brian Freitas

Sanrio (8136 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 10 December. The average large Japanese placement tends to generate positive returns.

Arun George

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