IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the announcement of the placement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).</li>
<li>To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.</li>
<li>So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the announcement of the placement, Rakuten (4755 JP)’s shares are down -15.7% from the undisturbed price of JPY707 per share (12 May prior to press reports of the placement).
To understand how the shares will trade as the offer is launched, we think it is instructive to look at recent large Japanese placements. Pricing date is likely 24 May.
So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back</li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. </li>
<li>NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX up again as Tech pushes stocks higher;  Biden off to G7 in Japan as market expect a deal on return; Walmart lifts Sales, spurring optimism; Fed Hawks back
JAPAN.  NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash;  As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba merge OA-Expect more OA Consolidation. 
NUGGET. Digital Transformation Japan - Still lots to do but legislation passed to expand DX that promotes the expansion in the use of My Number


Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back </li>
<li>NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise;  Solid US Housing starts; Musk Says 2 new Blockbuster Telsa models to come. 
JAPAN.  NKY Futs 1.4% vs Cash; Japan Equities poised to make new highs on US rally and weaker yen;  Japan GDP print 1.6%, better than expected;  Chinese Tourist Back 
NUGGET. Rapidus aims to rejuvenate Japan's semiconductor industry by developing advanced 2-nanometer logic semiconductors, with plans for a prototype production line by 2025 and mass production by 2027.


Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> is looking to raise around US$2.4bn by selling shares via a Japanese Public Offering and an International Offering as well as through a third-party allotment.</li>
<li>The stock has already dropped 13.7% in the last couple of days on large volumes as the rumours of the offering started to swirl.</li>
<li>The offering prices late next week and passive trackers will be buying stock once the stock settles and this will provide support in the near-term.</li>
</ul>



Rakuten (4755 JP) is looking to raise around US$2.4bn by selling shares via a Japanese Public Offering and an International Offering as well as through a third-party allotment.
The stock has already dropped 13.7% in the last couple of days on large volumes as the rumours of the offering started to swirl.
The offering prices late next week and passive trackers will be buying stock once the stock settles and this will provide support in the near-term.


Rakuten (4755 JP) Offering: Could Drop Some More Before Passive Buying Kicks In

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.3% for the week. VIX trading at 17%, near its one-year lows, despite the possibility of a US default. We are wary..</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY futures are trading at a 0.6% premium vs Cash; Foreign investors continue to buy; Earnings season continues to see strong improvements to shareholder returns; Remain bullish JAPAN.</li>
<li>NUGGET.  Comprehrensive IEA report EV Outlook 2023.  EV Sales to reach 14 million,+35%YoY in 2023 - Japanese OEMs continue to lag</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX declined by 0.2% on Friday and 0.3% for the week. VIX trading at 17%, near its one-year lows, despite the possibility of a US default. We are wary..
JAPAN. NKY futures are trading at a 0.6% premium vs Cash; Foreign investors continue to buy; Earnings season continues to see strong improvements to shareholder returns; Remain bullish JAPAN.
NUGGET.  Comprehrensive IEA report EV Outlook 2023.  EV Sales to reach 14 million,+35%YoY in 2023 - Japanese OEMs continue to lag


Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM's Absent

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Rakuten (4755 JP): The Current Playbook

So far, Rakuten’s shares have mostly followed the pattern of previous large placements. Investors participating in previous large Japanese...

Arun George

Ohayo Japan |Tech on Fire; Relentless Japan Equity Bid;NUGGET: "My Number" Expansion to Hasten JP DX

NKY Futs +1.1% vs Cash; As Japan Prepares for G7 Meeting, PM Kishida woos Global Semi CEOs; Panasonic tgts 200GW batteries by 2030; Ricoh-Toshiba...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan|Relief Equity Rally, But Still No Deal; NUGGET: Rapidus: Key to Japan's Semi Resurgence

Risk on as US Equities Jump on Debt Ceiling Hopes; China April House px rise; Solid US Housing starts; Japan Equities poised to make new highs...

Mark Chadwick

Rakuten (4755 JP) Offering: Could Drop Some More Before Passive Buying Kicks In

Rakuten is looking to raise US$2.45bn via a Japanese, International and third-party offering. The stock has dropped 13.7% in the last 2 days and...

Brian Freitas

Ohayo Japan |US Stocks Tread Water Amid Debt Limit Talks; NUGGET:Bullish BEV Outlook-JP OEM's Absent

We have Rebranded from "Good Morning Japan" to "Ohayo Japan" ! SPX largely unchanged last week amid debt limit talks; Japan equites near 52W highs...

Mark Chadwick

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