Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data is largely unchanged since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-sep-annual-review-predictions-3-in-3-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:73209" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out</a> set of predictions published 15 days ago.</li>
<li>The consultation results are out. They are as expected too. This has the hallmarks of a VERY well-signalled trade. But it's a biggie. The funding trade alone is ¥600bn.</li>
<li>Because of the data, market conditions, and the variability of choice at the edges, I believe that warrants particular strategy.</li>
</ul>


The data is largely unchanged since the Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out set of predictions published 15 days ago.
The consultation results are out. They are as expected too. This has the hallmarks of a VERY well-signalled trade. But it's a biggie. The funding trade alone is ¥600bn.
Because of the data, market conditions, and the variability of choice at the edges, I believe that warrants particular strategy.


Nikkei 225 Sep22 Annual Review; Data Final, Predictions Unch'd; Strategy Involved

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the September rebalance of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.
The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  </li>
<li>They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. </li>
<li>The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP) yesterday announced Q1 results, with Revenues/OP/NP at record levels, a H1 div hike of 30%, guidance well ahead of consensus, and a buyback.  
They also announced a Mid-Term Plan revision which shows forward guidance better than consensus. 
The buyback is smaller than the last one BUT float is not what you think it is. Understanding float dynamics here is key.


Advantest (6857) - Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Renesas stock is down around 8% following quarterly earnings and a very conservative Q3 outlook</li>
<li>We think the market is over reacting and believe that Renesas is a key beneficiary of secular growth in auto and industrial electronics</li>
<li>The stock trades at a discount to global peers, despite a strong story for improving shareholder returns</li>
</ul>


Renesas stock is down around 8% following quarterly earnings and a very conservative Q3 outlook
We think the market is over reacting and believe that Renesas is a key beneficiary of secular growth in auto and industrial electronics
The stock trades at a discount to global peers, despite a strong story for improving shareholder returns


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was up 4.2% over the past 5 days while the yen was slightly stronger (¥138.31 -&gt; ¥136.05 </li>
<li>Japan's core consumer inflation stayed above the BOJ target of 2% for a third straight month in June as energy prices remain high. No change to BOJ policy. </li>
<li>Japan warns of rising security threats in annual defense report, including technology supply chains, Russia and China/Taiwan</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was up 4.2% over the past 5 days while the yen was slightly stronger (¥138.31 -&gt; ¥136.05 
Japan's core consumer inflation stayed above the BOJ target of 2% for a third straight month in June as energy prices remain high. No change to BOJ policy. 
Japan warns of rising security threats in annual defense report, including technology supply chains, Russia and China/Taiwan


Japan Stocks on the Move | Nikon, Renesas, Renova

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

Nikkei 225 Sep22 Annual Review; Data Final, Predictions Unch'd; Strategy Involved

The Nikkei 225 Consultation Results were published last Wednesday. The data cutoff was last Friday. It's all pretty well-signalled but there are...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

The market consultation conclusion were confirmed last week. We expect 3 changes to the index in September and another 3 in March. The adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

Advantest (6857) - Strong SoC Sales, Record Profits, Bullish Guidance, and a Buyback (+ Index Flow)

Advantest runs a blowout Q1, announces guidance ahead of consensus, revises its MTP to be more bullish, raises divs and announces a buyback. The...

Travis Lundy

Renesas (6723) | Buy the Dip

Renesas is a key beneficiary in auto and industrial electrification. The stock trades at a discount to global peers, despite a strong story for...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Stocks on the Move | Nikon, Renesas, Renova

Japanese stocks were in buoyant mood last week despite persistent concerns over inflation and its impact on corporate earnings. Renesas and Nikon...

Mark Chadwick

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