'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough.  There is still considerable uncertainty both from the COVID pandemic and from the on-again, off-again US/China Trade War.

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

First quarter semiconductor revenues were reported to be up 6.9% from one year-ago but down 3.9% from the fourth quarter.  This positive news incorporates very little impact from today's COVID-19 pandemic which, along with other factors, should result in weak revenues for the remainder of the year.

First quarter semiconductor revenues were reported to be up 6.9% from one year-ago but down 3.9% from the fourth quarter.  This positive news incorporates very little impact from today's COVID-19 pandemic which, along with other factors, should result in weak revenues for the remainder of the year.

Q1 Semis Up 6.9% Y/Y, but COVID Not Yet Factored In

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Equity Bottom-Up

Renesas was up 9.6% today after posting solid 1Q results with OP of ¥11.3bn well above consensus at ¥6.9bn and revenue was also slightly higher at ¥178.7bn vs. consensus’ ¥174.6bn. The surprise was on margins where gross margin is rising, SG&amp;A expenses appear to be well under control and automotive segment profitability is starting to look healthy again. The Long Renesas, Short TEL idea we pushed on 14 Apr is now up 14.5% in ratio terms from the 15 Apr close. We suggested at the time that there could be about 25% upside to the ratio and that remains our target which leaves about 10.8% upside left.

Renesas was up 9.6% today after posting solid 1Q results with OP of ¥11.3bn well above consensus at ¥6.9bn and revenue was also slightly higher at ¥178.7bn vs. consensus’ ¥174.6bn. The surprise was on margins where gross margin is rising, SG&amp;A expenses appear to be well under control and automotive segment profitability is starting to look healthy again. The Long Renesas, Short TEL idea we pushed on 14 Apr is now up 14.5% in ratio terms from the 15 Apr close. We suggested at the time that there could be about 25% upside to the ratio and that remains our target which leaves about 10.8% upside left.

Renesas – There Is Juice Left in the Long Renesas Short TEL Pair ST and Long Renesas Has Legs LT

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February.  While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's figures are only the beginning of the upcoming downturn.  This Smartkarma Insight uses the industry's historical trends to give an early and rough indication of how the market might evolve.

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

Japan

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

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Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

Semiconductors in April: COVID Impact Still Small

The SIA has released April's semiconductor shipment numbers, and they look positive enough. There is still considerable uncertainty both from the...

Jim Handy

Q1 Semis Up 6.9% Y/Y, but COVID Not Yet Factored In

First quarter semiconductor revenues were reported to be up 6.9% from one year-ago but down 3.9% from the fourth quarter. This positive news...

Jim Handy

Renesas – There Is Juice Left in the Long Renesas Short TEL Pair ST and Long Renesas Has Legs LT

Renesas was up 9.6% today after posting solid 1Q results with OP of ¥11.3bn well above consensus at ¥6.9bn and revenue was also slightly higher at...

Mio Kato

February Semiconductors Show Onset of COVID-19 Decline

The SIA released WSTS semiconductor revenues for February. While there was a small decline attributable to COVID-19, it is clear that February's...

Jim Handy

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