Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.</li>
<li>The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. </li>
<li>Late founder Kim's family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim's wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. </li>
</ul>


Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.
The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price. 
Late founder Kim's family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim's wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp. 


Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Government aims to sell 30.6% NXC stake by 2027 for ₩4T tax revenue, offering NXC a buyback or selling with management control to attract bidders.</li>
<li>The family won’t buy back the 30.6% stake but may allow partial management rights, with Tencent eyeing that stake—not a full $15B Nexon buyout as Bloomberg suggested.</li>
<li>Tencent’s targeting that stake chunk only, no control shift, so no mandatory tender offer triggered—at least for now.</li>
</ul>


Government aims to sell 30.6% NXC stake by 2027 for ₩4T tax revenue, offering NXC a buyback or selling with management control to attract bidders.
The family won’t buy back the 30.6% stake but may allow partial management rights, with Tencent eyeing that stake—not a full $15B Nexon buyout as Bloomberg suggested.
Tencent’s targeting that stake chunk only, no control shift, so no mandatory tender offer triggered—at least for now.


More Accurate Context Behind Tencent’s Nexon Moves Reported by Bloomberg

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nexon underperformed the software segment by 32% in the past 12 months, and analysts expect earnings to decline over the next 5 years.</li>
<li>But the company beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% and the stock lurched 17% the very next day.</li>
<li>Nexon’s business is immune to tariffs and tends to perform well in recessions. The company’s pipeline appears to be stronger than anyone imagined.</li>
</ul>


Nexon underperformed the software segment by 32% in the past 12 months, and analysts expect earnings to decline over the next 5 years.
But the company beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% and the stock lurched 17% the very next day.
Nexon’s business is immune to tariffs and tends to perform well in recessions. The company’s pipeline appears to be stronger than anyone imagined.


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Oracle's good numbers pulling AI and DC related names up, while Samsung failing its NVDA HBM certification (again) positive for Micron.</li>
<li>Tencent is back at the table looking to bid for Nexon, whose outstanding short interest could see a rapid squeeze.</li>
<li>All the good news out for Konami? Looks like it after their even last night with further upside catalysts lacking.</li>
</ul>


Oracle's good numbers pulling AI and DC related names up, while Samsung failing its NVDA HBM certification (again) positive for Micron.
Tencent is back at the table looking to bid for Nexon, whose outstanding short interest could see a rapid squeeze.
All the good news out for Konami? Looks like it after their even last night with further upside catalysts lacking.


Japan Morning Connection: Air India Crash Sends Boing Lower, AMD's AI Event Fails to Impress

<ul>
<li>Trump whipping up interest in all things AI and data center over his state visit to Saudi.</li>
<li>Pharma giving back yesterdays rebound with risks remaining over Trump's planned pricing cuts.</li>
<li>Kokusai Electric may continue moving higher post-numbers  as a potential NKY225 inclusion candidate.</li>
</ul>


Trump whipping up interest in all things AI and data center over his state visit to Saudi.
Pharma giving back yesterdays rebound with risks remaining over Trump's planned pricing cuts.
Kokusai Electric may continue moving higher post-numbers  as a potential NKY225 inclusion candidate.


Japan Morning Connection: US Opening Doors to Greater UAE/Saudi Chip Sales Driving Tech and Semis

Japan

Nexon Co., Ltd. mainly develops and services, online games for PC and mobile devices. The company also offers consulting services related to online-games. Nexon operates in Japan.

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Nexon (3659 JP)

Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a sale of NXC Corp/Nexon...

Douglas Kim

More Accurate Context Behind Tencent’s Nexon Moves Reported by Bloomberg

This post digs deeper to give you the more accurate, behind-the-scenes context on Tencent’s Nexon moves that Bloomberg reported.

Sanghyun Park

How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back

Nexon beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% but still lags other software companies. The company's immune to tariffs and recession-resistant,...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Air India Crash Sends Boing Lower, AMD's AI Event Fails to Impress

Tech and Semi's led higher by Oracle, setting upbeat tone for AI and data center related plays. Watch for knock on effects from recent Boeing 787...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Opening Doors to Greater UAE/Saudi Chip Sales Driving Tech and Semis

Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia sparks interest in AI and data centers, Pharma stocks drop after rebound, Kokusai Electric may rise further as...

Andrew Jackson

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Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

The higher probability scenario is for Kim's family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a sale of NXC Corp/Nexon...

Douglas Kim

More Accurate Context Behind Tencent’s Nexon Moves Reported by Bloomberg

This post digs deeper to give you the more accurate, behind-the-scenes context on Tencent’s Nexon moves that Bloomberg reported.

Sanghyun Park

How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back

Nexon beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% but still lags other software companies. ​The company's immune to tariffs and recession-resistant,...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Air India Crash Sends Boing Lower, AMD's AI Event Fails to Impress

Tech and Semi's led higher by Oracle, setting upbeat tone for AI and data center related plays. Watch for knock on effects from recent Boeing 787...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: US Opening Doors to Greater UAE/Saudi Chip Sales Driving Tech and Semis

​Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia sparks interest in AI and data centers, Pharma stocks drop after rebound, Kokusai Electric may rise further as...

Andrew Jackson

Nexon beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% but still lags other software companies. The company's immune to tariffs and recession-resistant,...

Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia sparks interest in AI and data centers, Pharma stocks drop after rebound, Kokusai Electric may rise further as...