Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q24E and 2024E core profit is expected to have grown by 251% and 220% YoY, respectively, driven by higher profit margins (due to rising swine prices and lower raw material costs), a decline in operating expenses to sales, and increased profit contributions from affiliates, despite a drop in sales.</li><li>The current valuation has been upgraded to a buy based on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), but the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to neutral (previously strong), with net profit growth over the next two years expected at a CAGR of 8%.</li><li>From a tactical perspective, the outlook has also shifted to neutral (previously limited downside risk).</li></ul>

4Q24E and 2024E core profit is expected to have grown by 251% and 220% YoY, respectively, driven by higher profit margins (due to rising swine prices and lower raw material costs), a decline in operating expenses to sales, and increased profit contributions from affiliates, despite a drop in sales.The current valuation has been upgraded to a buy based on the fundamentals (previously undervalued), but the long-term growth outlook has been downgraded to neutral (previously strong), with net profit growth over the next two years expected at a CAGR of 8%.From a tactical perspective, the outlook has also shifted to neutral (previously limited downside risk).

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit Growth of 251% and 220% YoY

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, though momentum is likely to moderate.</li><li>The Cabinet has approved the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme with a total budget of Bt44bn (in line with expectations).</li><li>The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to 1.25%, the lowest level in three years.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways up today, though momentum is likely to moderate.The Cabinet has approved the Khon La Khrueng Plus scheme with a total budget of Bt44bn (in line with expectations).The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to 1.25%, the lowest level in three years.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 8, 2025

<ul><li>Thai and Vietnamese swine prices weakened during the monsoon season, while ASF outbreaks in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, Laos, and Cambodia accelerated hog sales, putting further pressure on prices.</li><li>We expect GPM in 3Q25E to soften QoQ (despite lower feed costs), following what we see as the peak in 2Q25 driven by strong swine and broiler prices along with lower raw material costs.</li><li>Accordingly, we forecast sector earnings to grow YoY but decline QoQ in 3Q25E, and we maintain a “Neutral” investment weighting.</li></ul>

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices weakened during the monsoon season, while ASF outbreaks in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, Laos, and Cambodia accelerated hog sales, putting further pressure on prices.We expect GPM in 3Q25E to soften QoQ (despite lower feed costs), following what we see as the peak in 2Q25 driven by strong swine and broiler prices along with lower raw material costs.Accordingly, we forecast sector earnings to grow YoY but decline QoQ in 3Q25E, and we maintain a “Neutral” investment weighting.

Agribusiness And Food: Thai & Vietnamese Swine Prices Ease; 3Q25TD/YTD2025 Still Up YoY

<ul><li>Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia, prompting accelerated selling and weighing on prices.</li><li>As a result, 3Q25E gross margins are expected to soften QoQ (despite a continued QoQ decline in feed raw material costs), following what is likely the peak margin in 2Q25E, driven by strong swine and broiler prices alongside easing input costs.</li><li>2Q25E profit is expected to have grown both YoY and QoQ, with earnings announcements scheduled between August 8-14. </li></ul>

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, and Cambodia, prompting accelerated selling and weighing on prices.As a result, 3Q25E gross margins are expected to soften QoQ (despite a continued QoQ decline in feed raw material costs), following what is likely the peak margin in 2Q25E, driven by strong swine and broiler prices alongside easing input costs.2Q25E profit is expected to have grown both YoY and QoQ, with earnings announcements scheduled between August 8-14. 

Industry Update: Agribusiness and Food - AUGUST 7, 2025

<ul><li>The US tariff measure requiring Thailand to increase imports of certain agricultural products from the US (details and procedures are not yet available, but the approach is expected to be similar to the Thailand-Australia FTA, which sets import quotas and gradually reduces tariff rates) may include frozen swine products and animal feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal.</li><li>We initially assess the net impact to be neutral for large integrated meat producers but negative for small- to mid-sized livestock farmers.</li><li>Overall, we expect a slightly positive impact on TFG (Neutral; FV=Bt5.10), a neutral impact on BTG (Neutral; FV=Bt17.50), a slightly negative impact on CPF (Neutral; FV=Bt21.50), and net positive impact for sole broiler producers like GFPT (Neutral; FV=Bt9.20).</li></ul>

The US tariff measure requiring Thailand to increase imports of certain agricultural products from the US (details and procedures are not yet available, but the approach is expected to be similar to the Thailand-Australia FTA, which sets import quotas and gradually reduces tariff rates) may include frozen swine products and animal feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal.We initially assess the net impact to be neutral for large integrated meat producers but negative for small- to mid-sized livestock farmers.Overall, we expect a slightly positive impact on TFG (Neutral; FV=Bt5.10), a neutral impact on BTG (Neutral; FV=Bt17.50), a slightly negative impact on CPF (Neutral; FV=Bt21.50), and net positive impact for sole broiler producers like GFPT (Neutral; FV=Bt9.20).

Industry Update: US Tariffs on Thai Livestock - AUGUST 4, 2025

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited produces a wide range of food products. The Company's products include chicken, pork, shrimp, fish, eggs. and duck.

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CP FOODS (CPF TB)

Charoen Pokphand Foods - 4Q24E and 2024E Core Profit Growth of 251% and 220% YoY

We maintain an Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt25.36, based on the earnings yield method using a required return of 9.2%, reflecting a...

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. October 8, 2025

The MPC meeting will be held today, with the outcome expected around 2:00 p.m. Bloomberg Consensus expects the policy rate to be cut from 1.50% to...

Krungthai XSpring

Agribusiness And Food: Thai & Vietnamese Swine Prices Ease; 3Q25TD/YTD2025 Still Up YoY

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices weakened during the monsoon season, while ASF outbreaks in parts of Vietnam, the Philippines, Laos, and Cambodia...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: Agribusiness and Food - AUGUST 7, 2025

Thai and Vietnamese swine prices have recently declined during the monsoon season, with additional pressure from ASF outbreaks reported in parts of...

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update: US Tariffs on Thai Livestock - AUGUST 4, 2025

US tariffs on Thai livestock in case Thailand opens up imports of certain agricultural products from the US at a 0% tariff rate

Krungthai XSpring

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