Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asics reports Q1 results on 11 May - we expect a beat to consensus numbers </li>
<li>We are bullish on Asics for the long term market share opportunity in China and margin expansion driven by digital</li>
<li>The rather amazing tie-up with STEPN for NFTs highlights potential new ways to monetise Asics brand value</li>
</ul>


Asics reports Q1 results on 11 May - we expect a beat to consensus numbers 
We are bullish on Asics for the long term market share opportunity in China and margin expansion driven by digital
The rather amazing tie-up with STEPN for NFTs highlights potential new ways to monetise Asics brand value


<ul>
<li>Demand for ASICS running shoes remains strong. That should become clear as factories reach full capacity and shipping problems recede.</li>
<li>Profit margins will expand due to less discounting and an improved channel mix. </li>
<li>We turn bullish following a 30% decline from 52-week high. The stock is now trading at undemanding multiples versus peers.  </li>
</ul>


Demand for ASICS running shoes remains strong. That should become clear as factories reach full capacity and shipping problems recede.
Profit margins will expand due to less discounting and an improved channel mix. 
We turn bullish following a 30% decline from 52-week high. The stock is now trading at undemanding multiples versus peers.  


<ul>
<li>We see near term headwinds to the outlook from supply chain disruptions. Q4 earnings and guidance for 2022 may disappoint a market that had started to price in margin expansion. </li>
<li>Asics may have gained share in some markets during Covid but we do not see this as permanent shift in brand awareness or power.  </li>
<li>The mid-term plan, digital strategy and 2030 vision are unspectacular and undifferentiated. Fed tightening could be an achilleas heel for Asics valuation.  </li>
</ul>


We see near term headwinds to the outlook from supply chain disruptions. Q4 earnings and guidance for 2022 may disappoint a market that had started to price in margin expansion. 
Asics may have gained share in some markets during Covid but we do not see this as permanent shift in brand awareness or power.  
The mid-term plan, digital strategy and 2030 vision are unspectacular and undifferentiated. Fed tightening could be an achilleas heel for Asics valuation.  


LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.</li>
<li>Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. </li>
<li>We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.</li>
</ul>


Select regions such as the US, Europe, Japan, and India are bullish, while others are not -- namely Hong Kong and China.
Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the MSCI ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a breakout. 
We highlight several buy opportunities within global Technology and Consumer Discretionary.


Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Japan

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

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ASICS Corp (7936 JP)

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Asics (7936) | Stepn into the Metaverse

Asics reports Q1 results on 11 May. We expect a beat. Longer term bulls should be buying for the market share opportunity in China and NFT...

Mark Chadwick

ASICS (7936): Time for a Bounce

We had been bearish since mid-Dec on potential supply disruptions. With the share price down 30% from its 52-week high and production/shipping...

Mark Chadwick

Asics (7936) | Running Out of Steam

We see near term headwinds to the outlook from supply chain disruptions. Q4 earnings and guidance for 2022 may disappoint a market that had started...

Mark Chadwick

Add To Global Technology and Consumer Discretionary

Relative strength (RS) for MSCI ACWI Technology is breaking out to new highs while RS on the ACWI Discretionary Sector is on the cusp of a...

Vermilion Research

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