Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook<em>.</em> We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.</p>

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for international equity markets, and supports our neutral outlook. We continue to recommend avoiding broad indexed exposure in favor of selectivity. In today’s report we highlight actionable country- and Sector-specific themes within Norway, India, Japan and Australia.

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Three recent important quarterly results from industry leaders indicate that there are no strong recovery signals in Indian economy. These companies are the largest lender <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/160" target="_blank">State Bank Of India (SBIN IN)</a>, largest Engineering &amp; Construction company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2499" target="_blank">Larsen &amp; Toubro Ltd (LT IN)</a> and FMCG major <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16495" target="_blank">Britannia Industries Ltd (BRIT IN)</a>. This means that the recovery in Indian economy will be slow and data points will continue to be erratic. For example, the recent data on Industrial Production, Inflation, Auto Sales, the Core Industries and the Business Confidence Indices. The most keenly watched next data points will be Q2 FY18 GDP growth and what RBI will do on interest rates in the month of December.</p>

Three recent important quarterly results from industry leaders indicate that there are no strong recovery signals in Indian economy. These companies are the largest lender State Bank Of India (SBIN IN), largest Engineering &amp; Construction company Larsen &amp; Toubro Ltd (LT IN) and FMCG major Britannia Industries Ltd (BRIT IN). This means that the recovery in Indian economy will be slow and data points will continue to be erratic. For example, the recent data on Industrial Production, Inflation, Auto Sales, the Core Industries and the Business Confidence Indices. The most keenly watched next data points will be Q2 FY18 GDP growth and what RBI will do on interest rates in the month of December.

India: Three Important Recent 2Q Results and What Do They Tell Us About State of Indian Economy?

<p>In our last insight on rainfall distribution in India, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monsoon-is-normal-this-year-perception-vs-reality-and-the-implications" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:12669">Monsoon Is “Normal” This Year: Perception Vs. Reality and the Implications</a> dated 8th August 2017, we had spoken about how a reported "Normal Monsoon" is hiding huge regional variations. We mentioned that though till 3rd August 2017 country-wide rainfall has been exactly 100% of Long Period Average or LPA, there have been drastic differences across different regions. For India as a whole, eight out of thirty six regions have had deficient…</p>

In our last insight on rainfall distribution in India, Monsoon Is “Normal” This Year: Perception Vs. Reality and the Implications dated 8th August 2017, we had spoken about how a reported "Normal Monsoon" is hiding huge regional variations. We mentioned that though till 3rd August 2017 country-wide rainfall has been exactly 100% of Long Period Average or LPA, there have been drastic differences across different regions. For India as a whole, eight out of thirty six regions have had deficient…

India: Monsoon Is Below Normal Now, Poor Rainfall Is Negative for Consumer Goods and Rate Cut Hopes

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

<p>We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.</p><h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)</h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/024/226/original/1.png?1492102101" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="24226"></figure><div class="content-caption"><strong>Source: Custom Products</strong></div><p>Taiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1">Hon Hai</a>…</p>

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not. Overall there were approx. 20% more downgrades than upgrades over the last 2 weeks.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)Source: Custom ProductsTaiwan and India had the most upgrades relative to total recommendations in the last two weeks. In Taiwan, 37 names had a least 1 upgrade. Hon Hai…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<h2>Headlines</h2><ul>
<li>Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016</li>
<li>With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting from bar to powder detergents driving growth</li>
<li>The average unit price increases by 5% in current value terms in 2016 due to increasing inflation</li>
<li>Hindustan Unilever Ltd leads laundry care with a value share of 37% in 2016</li>
<li>Laundry care in India is expected to record a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2016 prices during the forecast period</li>
</ul><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/022/657/original/market%20size%20laundry%20care%20india%2011-16.png?1489628435" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="22657"></figure><h2>Competitive Landscape</h2><ul><li>…</li></ul>

Headlines
Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016
With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting from bar to powder detergents driving growth
The average unit price increases by 5% in current value terms in 2016 due to increasing inflation
Hindustan Unilever Ltd leads laundry care with a value share of 37% in 2016
Laundry care in India is expected to record a value CAGR of 2% at constant 2016 prices during the forecast period
Competitive Landscape…

India

Britannia Industries Limited manufactures bakery products such as biscuits, bread, cakes and rusks.  The Company also manufactures and exports soybean products, cashew kernels, marine products, and general merchandise items.

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Britannia Industries (BRIT IN)

Global Ex-U.S. & EM Continue to Point to Risk-Off Environment

YTD sideways congestion for the MSCI ACWI ex-US and an intact downtrend for the MSCI EM index continue to point to a risk-off environment for...

Vermilion Research

India: Three Important Recent 2Q Results and What Do They Tell Us About State of Indian Economy?

Three recent important quarterly results from industry leaders indicate that there are no strong recovery signals in Indian economy. These...

Pankaj Sharma

India: Monsoon Is Below Normal Now, Poor Rainfall Is Negative for Consumer Goods and Rate Cut Hopes

In our last insight on rainfall distribution in India, Monsoon Is “Normal” This Year: Perception Vs. Reality and the Implications dated 8th August...

Pankaj Sharma

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan (Last 2 Weeks)

We continue to track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

Sector Capsule: Laundry Care in India

Headlines Laundry care records current value growth of 9% in 2016 to reach INR205 billion in 2016 With increasing awareness, consumers are shifting...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

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