Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).</li>
<li>TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.</li>
<li>TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.</li>
</ul>


News or rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting down CoWoS orders at TSMC have been flying around since last week (Taiwan media, some sell-side analysts).
TSMC guided for AI revenues doubling in 2025. Nvidia’s CEO clarified that CoWoS-S orders are declining because CoWoS-L is increasing. This transition has been known for over 1 year.
TSMC is converting CoWoS-S to L and adding capacity in Tainan Science Park phase 2 &amp; 3. In 2024, CoWoS-L was ~10% of CoWoS output, increasing to 50-60% in 2025.


TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"</li>
<li>Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand</li>
<li>TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay</li>
</ul>


Leaked Mediatek Chip Specs? -- Talk of a "Qualcomm Killer"
Hon Hai in the New York Times -- Why Foxconn is Investing in Texas &amp; Thailand
TSMC's Arizona 4nm Production On Track to Start 2H25E -- Still Expected to Be 30% Higher Cost vs. Taiwan and That's Okay


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible</li>
<li>Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high</li>
<li>AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform </li>
</ul>


AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who  pulled off what many thought to be impossible
Despite flawless execution and carving out a brand new $5 billion market segment within AI Acceleration, AMD's share prices is down 44% from its 52 week high
AMD will ultimately face headwinds from Arm but, for the time being, their growth will come from continuing to take market share from Intel and building on their Instinct platform 


Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.</li>
<li>In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM's revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.</li>
<li>Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. </li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.
In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM's revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.
Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> would replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dow-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19107:1" rel="noopener">Dow (DOW US)</a> in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.</li>
<li>This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. </li>
<li>The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sherwin-williams-co-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15539:1" rel="noopener">Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US)</a> could get exciting.</li>
</ul>


Late Friday, S&amp;PDJI announced NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) would replace Intel Corp (INTC US) and Dow (DOW US) in the Dow Jones Industrial Avg.
This was done to "ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector, respectively." This will be effective of 7 November close; only four days to trade. 
The details merit a closer look. Calculating how much tracks the DJIA should be "easy" but I have questions. That said, Sherwin Williams Co (SHW US) could get exciting.


Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

The DJIA (Dow30) is an odd anachronism. Price-weighted. Rebalances when it wants. No ranking system. Just a committee and some vague inputs. This...

Travis Lundy

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TSMC Order Cut Rumors: Keep Calm and Ignore the Rumors.

​Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Leaked Mediatek Specs Spur Talk Of "Qualcomm Killer"'; TSMC on Track in Arizona

​Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

AMD's Lisa Su Named Time CEO Of The Year

AMD’s Lisa Su has been honoured as Time’s CEO of the year, a fitting tribute to a leader who pulled off what many thought to be impossible....

William Keating

Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

​AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Dow Jones Industrial Avg Nov24 Rebalance - Sherwin Williams (SHW) Could Get Jiggy

The DJIA (Dow30) is an odd anachronism. Price-weighted. Rebalances when it wants. No ranking system. Just a committee and some vague inputs. This...

Travis Lundy

Rumors of Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom cutting CoWoS orders at TSMC are debunked as TSMC transitions to CoWoS-L, expects a doubling of AI revenues in...

Leaked Mediatek chip specs hint at potential rival to Qualcomm's flagship chips; Foxconn investing in Texas & Thailand; TSMC's Arizona production...

AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.