Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Novatek Microelectronics Corp / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  </li>
<li>Factors such as increased demand related to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a>  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.</li>
<li>US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.</li>
</ul>


The 1Q25 outlook is expected to see a 0-5% decline quarter-over-quarter due to the recent earthquake in southern Taiwan.  
Factors such as increased demand related to Apple (AAPL US)  iPhone production and subsidies for China's electronics industry are expected to boost Novatek's output in 1Q25.
US President Donald Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Taiwan's increasing dominance in the semiconductor manufacturing sector.


Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market</li>
<li>Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights -- Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share</li>
<li>Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights -- Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA</li>
</ul>


Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights -- Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights -- Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA


PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.</li>
<li>In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.</li>
</ul>


Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.


Tokyo Electron (TEL):  Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue</li>
<li>AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading</li>
<li>H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.</li>
</ul>


Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.


AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.</li><li>Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.</li><li>Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Microsoft's focus on AI resulted in throwing themselves under the bus to keep the AI train going.Microsoft's decision to maintain CapEx numbers for AI semis may not align with street expectations.Microsoft's shift away from AI for small and medium businesses indicates uncertainty about the utility of AI for a large part of the customer base.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Microsoft's financial numbers remained steady with a focus on AI investment and potential growth in other areas of the business.

The Circuit

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Novatek (3034.TT): Earthquake Affecting 1Q25 Outlook; Benefited by Subsidies for China's Electronics

​1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

Patrick Liao

PC Monitor: Latest Qualcomm & Mediatek Results Show ARM-Based Chips Disrupting the PC Market

​ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Tokyo Electron (TEL): Maintains Its FY25 Guidance and Provides a Cautious 2025 Outlook

​Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...

Nicolas Baratte

AMD Q424. Share Price Sinks As Data Center GPU Growth Stalls In H125. But Why?

H125 is a reset period for AMD's Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn't mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better,...

William Keating

Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

Microsoft's financial numbers remained steady with a focus on AI investment and potential growth in other areas of the business.

The Circuit

1Q25 outlook for Novatek expected to decline 0-5% due to Taiwan earthquake, but boosted by Apple demand and China subsidies. Trump unhappy with...

ARM-based chips, led by Qualcomm and Mediatek, are poised to disrupt the PC market with successful market share gains and collaborations with...

Japanese SPE firms are cautious about 2025, with TSMC and HBM Capex as bright spots, while Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines. Tokyo...