Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.</li><li>Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividend</li><li>There was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.</li></ul>

First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it.Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs FactSet $0.10, announces $10B cost reduction plan; suspends dividendThere was another layoff of around 15% of employees, a full dividend suspension (finally, guys), and a capex cut.

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The Wall Street Journal last week <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/amd-is-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-xilinx-11602205553" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-micro-devices-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19009:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Micro Devices</a> is in advanced talks to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xilinx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11600:1" rel="noopener">Xilinx</a> for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. </p>

The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Advanced Micro Devices is in advanced talks to buy Xilinx for a consideration of some $30 billion. It's a surprising move for the famously cautious and pragmatic CEO, Lisa Su. However, we think that the rumour is credible and, on balance, believe it to be a smart move on the part of AMD. Here's why. 

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

<ul>
<li>AMD announced their intention to acquire hyperscale solutions Provider ZT Systems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion</li>
<li>The real target of the deal is the 1,000 Data Center design engineers all of who will transfer directly to AMD's engineering team with an annual OpEx of $150 million</li>
<li>This is AMD scaling up to grab a larger share of the ~$400 billion by 2027 AI Data Center TAM just as Intel is scaling down its workforce by 15,000</li>
</ul>


AMD announced their intention to acquire hyperscale solutions Provider ZT Systems in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion
The real target of the deal is the 1,000 Data Center design engineers all of who will transfer directly to AMD's engineering team with an annual OpEx of $150 million
This is AMD scaling up to grab a larger share of the ~$400 billion by 2027 AI Data Center TAM just as Intel is scaling down its workforce by 15,000


TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the "traditional" foundry market</li>
<li>The lion's share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)</li>
<li>Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it's the polar opposite of Intel's IDM 2.0 </li>
</ul>


TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the "traditional" foundry market
The lion's share of this new market will come from IDM, a combination of increased outsourcing (e.g. Intel) and new JV deals (e.g. Germany and Japan)
Foundry 2.0 reflects the reality of how the semi industry is evolving and it's the polar opposite of Intel's IDM 2.0 


TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a> has significantly outperformed this year, driven by a global AI-driven tailwind resulting in substantial revenue growth acceleration and a significant earnings upgrade cycle.</li>
<li>Record levels of FCF generation have supported dividend increases, and whilst future DPS expectations seem conservative, the current dividend yield suggests future increases have been priced in.</li>
<li>TSMC trades just above its 5-year historic average trading levels and at a premium to its key competitors, other smaller listed foundries, its main customers, and large suppliers.</li>
</ul>



Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT) has significantly outperformed this year, driven by a global AI-driven tailwind resulting in substantial revenue growth acceleration and a significant earnings upgrade cycle.
Record levels of FCF generation have supported dividend increases, and whilst future DPS expectations seem conservative, the current dividend yield suggests future increases have been priced in.
TSMC trades just above its 5-year historic average trading levels and at a premium to its key competitors, other smaller listed foundries, its main customers, and large suppliers.


TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel Missed the Party, while AMD's ZT Systems is the Bet to Stay in the Game

First, let’s start with Intel. Intel had a pretty poor earnings result. There’s no two ways about it. Intel reports Q2 EPS $0.02 ex-items vs...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMD. Making Sense Of The Proposed Xilinx Acquisition.

If the ~$5 billion (minus what it can get for ZT Systems manufacturing operations) AMD is paying to get its hands on 1,000 data center engineers...

William Keating

AMD Scales Up Just As Intel Scales Down

AMD to buy ZT Systems for $4.9 billion. The real target is the 1,000 strong data center R&D team, which aligns with their #1 strategic priority of...

William Keating

TSMC Foundry 2.0: Strategic Shift Or Brand Tinkering?

TSMC Foundry 2.0 more than doubles its addressable market and resets its market share to 28%, down from the ~60% share it has long enjoyed in the...

William Keating

TSMC (2330-TT): Revisiting Previous Bullish Themes Following Outperformance

In this insight, we revisit our bullish outlook for TSMC by analysing its revenue growth and margin prospects, Free Cash Flow generation outlook,...

Wium Malan, CFA

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