Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics</li>
<li>There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday </li>
<li>For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it</li>
</ul>


Early indications for the Golden Week suggest new home sales in the 18 major cities (with consistent data we track) deteriorated further on multiple metrics
There might be some data distortions due to delays in reporting over the holiday 
For the full picture, we would wait another 1-2 weeks and look at the Golden Week and 1-2 weeks surrounding it


China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


A weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) </li>
<li>But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)</li>
<li>This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales for a group of 15 major cities to the week ending Sep 24, continue to show deterioration in aggregate (YTD y/y, 4-week y/y, 52-week y/y) 
But some cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, saw a jump in new home sales reported for the last week (based on the underlying data from CREIS)
This is likely the first signs of impact from the latest policy easing measures that now start showing in the data


China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

<ul>
<li>We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave</li>
<li>Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?</li>
<li>A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales</li>
</ul>


We hosted a Real Estate Foresight Webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy easing wave
Can we see the impact of the policy easing? How much of further stimulus to expect? What will be the 'next normal' for new home sales after the downturn?
A quick poll of the participants (experienced professionals in China property) showed a 100% consensus that more easing will be needed to trigger a rebound in new home sales


China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

China

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is a large-scale integrated investment group primarily engaged in property development, investment, and management, alongside hotel and catering, cultural center, and healthcare operations. Its portfolio includes residential properties, villas, offices, serviced apartments, and urban complexes. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Kaisa Group (1638 HK)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

Weekly (Sep 22-28) curated summaries of the selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property: First signs of the impact of policy easing in some cities where new home sales jumped in the week to Sep 24, though in aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

A weekly curated selection and summaries of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Property: Golden Week - Early Data Suggests Weaker New Home Sales

​China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 22-28 September 2023

Weekly (Sep 22-28) curated summaries of the selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - First Signs Of Improvement In Some Cities (Weekly New Home Sales To Sep 24)

China Property: First signs of the impact of policy easing in some cities where new home sales jumped in the week to Sep 24, though in aggregate...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | 15-21 September 2023

A weekly curated selection and summaries of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress.

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing - And The Sum Of All Tiers [Webinar Presentation Video]

Real Estate Foresight hosted a webinar on Sep 20, with our latest take on China's housing markets after the recent policy-easing wave. Watch the...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property: Early indications show that new home sales in major cities during Golden Week have worsened on multiple metrics, but data...