Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources, Transurban, Asx.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 9th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD25.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources, Transurban, Asx.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32

Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months</li>
<li>Actively looking for uranium short positions</li>
<li>Provide summarised watch list</li>
<li>Wisdom from Samuel Longhorne Clemens</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17078" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17078:1">Berkeley Energy (BKY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25364" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25364:1">Cameco Corp (CCO CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27734" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27734:1">Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya At (KZAP KZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28004" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28004:1">Jangada Mines PLC (JAN LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28005" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28005:1">Europa Metals Ltd (EUZ LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10708" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10708:1">Buxton Resources (BUX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2564" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2564:1">Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18292" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18292:1">Myanmar Metals (MYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13112" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13112:1">Archer Exploration (AXE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15927" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15927:1">Canyon Resources (CAY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14712" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1">Core Exploration (CXO AU)</a>, Exore Resources (ASX: ERX), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20213" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20213:1">Stavely Minerals (SVY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/28007" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28007:1">Horizonte Minerals PLC (HZM LN)</a>, Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14443" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14443:1">Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU)</a>, First Au (ASX: FAU), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3189" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3189:1">Base Resources (BSE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19210" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19210:1">Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)</a>  </li>
</ul>


Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months
Actively looking for uranium short positions
Provide summarised watch list
Wisdom from Samuel Longhorne Clemens

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN), Berkeley Energy (BKY AU), Cameco Corp (CCO CN), Kazatomprom Natsionalnaya At (KZAP KZ), Jangada Mines PLC (JAN LN), Europa Metals Ltd (EUZ LN), Buxton Resources (BUX AU), Musgrave Minerals (MGV AU), Myanmar Metals (MYL AU), Archer Exploration (AXE AU), Canyon Resources (CAY AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Core Exploration (CXO AU), Exore Resources (ASX: ERX), Stavely Minerals (SVY AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Horizonte Minerals PLC (HZM LN), Bellevue Gold (ASX: BGL), Allegiance Coal (AHQ AU), First Au (ASX: FAU), Base Resources (BSE AU), Breaker Resources Nl (BRB AU)  


New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 22/03/19)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27844" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27844:1">Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN)</a> is a pure play on the uranium price</li>
<li>Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV</li>
<li>Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand</li>
<li>Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production</li>
<li>Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006</li>
<li>Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050</li>
<li>
1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8
</li>
<li>
3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O</li>
</ul>



Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price
Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 &amp; L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8

Share price trading at ~2% discount to NPV
Despite recent production cuts, primary &amp; secondary supplies cover world demand
Est. surplus ~500ktU, representing six years of global primary production
Global nuclear generation peaked in 2006
Forecast world uranium demand to decline between 25% and 40% by 2050

1-year Target Price £1.98-2.02 ps NPV4% assuming $24/lb U3O8


3-year Target Price £1.57-1.77 ps NPV4% assuming $21/lb U3O


Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies</li>
<li>LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase</li>
<li>Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand</li>
<li>Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022</li>
<li>Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050</li>
<li> Primary Uranium sector LT SELL</li>
</ul>
We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.


Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies
LT contracts &amp; speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot price increase
Primary/secondary Uranium supplies currently 112% of 2017 demand
Uranium supply deficits extremely unlikely before 2022
Global Uranium demand to fall 25-40% by 2050
 Primary Uranium sector LT SELL

We have independently audited global nuclear construction statistics in order to determine future Uranium demand.  Although near-term statistics match those in the public domain, long-term demand determined via construction pipeline illustrates substantial discrepancies.  Compiling planned plant construction, operational extensions, nameplate upgrades, versus decommissioning announcements/events, and in many cases, public policy inertia; has led us to believe that despite historical primary supply shortages, global nuclear demand peaked in 2006.
Since plateauing and despite strong Chinese growth, nuclear power generation has fallen &lt;2% over the past two decades, a decline that is predicted to accelerate as a number of developed and developing nations pursue other energy options.
The macro-trend not replacing existing nuclear infrastructure means (dependent on assumptions), according to our calculations, global uranium demand will decrease between 20 to 40% by 2050.
As opposed to signifying a fundamental change in underlying demand, we believe that recent Uranium price increases are the result of producers closing primary operations, and substituting production with purchases on the spot market to meet long-term contract obligations.  In addition, hedge funds are buying physical uranium in order to realise profits on potential future commodity price increases.  Critically, we determine that primary and secondary supplies are more than sufficient to meet forecast demand over the next four to five years; before taking into account substantial existing global uranium stocks, some of which are able to re-enter the spot market at short notice.

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Australia

Berkeley Energia Limited provides non-ferrous metals exploration and production services. The Company offers uranium extraction, mining support, reserves development, and project management services. Berkeley Energia conducts its business worldwide.

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Berkeley Energy (BKY AU)

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 9th): Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Santos, Origin Energy, Jb Hi-Fi, Northern Star...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

New J Hutton – Exploration Report (Weeks Ending 22/03/19)

Uranium Price has fallen 7% over the past two months Actively looking for uranium short positions Provide summarised watch list Wisdom from Samuel...

Boost Research

Yellow Cake (YCA) - Great Idea, Wrong Time!

Yellow Cake PLC (YCA LN) is a pure play on the uranium price Spot Price $28.90/lb U3O8 & L.T. Price remains $32/lb U3O8 Share price trading...

Boost Research

Uranium - About to Enter Its Own Nuclear Winter

Quantifying nuclear statistics with substantial discrepancies LT contracts & speculative hoarding driving recent 40% spot...

Boost Research

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52-week Range

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