IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 17 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.</li>
</ul>


On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. 
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)</a> miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> and the whole sector</li>
<li>Chinese consumers aren't buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayerische-motoren-werke-ag-bmw-72824b26-c157-46b2-bafe-650cb75a091f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21591:1" rel="noopener">Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR)</a> or going to the Movies</li>
<li>But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boot-barn-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11647:1" rel="noopener">Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US)</a> </li>
</ul>



Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK) miss suggests inventory fire sale ahead. Negative for demand in China, Nike (NKE US), Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) and the whole sector
Chinese consumers aren't buying Bayerische Motoren Werke (BMW) (BMW GR) or going to the Movies
But Americans are still walking in Westerns Boots Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT US) 


Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

Hua Hong Semiconductor / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After hitting a low point in Q4 2023, Research on Hong Kong companies has been slow to pick up reflecting the ongoing skepticism from investors. </li>
<li>Reports on the large China tech companies dominated the top ten companies covered over the last couple of years and in the first half of 2024.</li>
<li>As China continues to dominate and make news in the global EV market, research in that sector has picked up.</li>
</ul>


After hitting a low point in Q4 2023, Research on Hong Kong companies has been slow to pick up reflecting the ongoing skepticism from investors. 
Reports on the large China tech companies dominated the top ten companies covered over the last couple of years and in the first half of 2024.
As China continues to dominate and make news in the global EV market, research in that sector has picked up.


BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

Equity Capital Markets

Belle Fashion Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/belle-fashion-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40959:1" rel="noopener">Belle Fashion Group (2007708D HK)</a>, the largest fashion footwear company in China, is seeking to raise up to US$1 billion in a HKEx IPO. </li>
<li>Belle Fashion originated from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/belle-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17174:1" rel="noopener">Belle International Holdings (2129452D HK)</a>, which was privatised in 2017. In October 2019, Belle International spun off its sportswear business as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/topsports-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28153:1" rel="noopener">Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>The investment case rests on a market-leading position, return to growth, margin improvement, cash generation and modest leverage. </li>
</ul>



Belle Fashion Group (2007708D HK), the largest fashion footwear company in China, is seeking to raise up to US$1 billion in a HKEx IPO. 
Belle Fashion originated from Belle International Holdings (2129452D HK), which was privatised in 2017. In October 2019, Belle International spun off its sportswear business as Topsports International Holdings (6110 HK).
The investment case rests on a market-leading position, return to growth, margin improvement, cash generation and modest leverage. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a> is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/amer-sports-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:124040" rel="noopener">Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on ball &amp; racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership, cash burn and high leverage.</li>
</ul>



Amer Sports (AS US) is a global iconic sports and outdoor brand group. According to press reports, it has filed for a NYSE IPO to raise US$2 billion.
In Amer Sports IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on ball &amp; racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership, cash burn and high leverage.


Hong Kong

Pou Sheng International (Holdings) Limited retails and wholesales sportswear, including sports footwear, apparel and accessories.

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Pou Sheng International (3813 HK)

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross...

Arun George

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

Tech NEV companies continue to dominate the research landscape for Hong Kong coverage. Bosideng, China Water Affairs, Topsports, BYD and Xiaomi...

David Mudd

Belle Fashion IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on a market-leading position, return to growth, margin improvement, cash generation and modest leverage.

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ball and racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership,...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross...

Arun George

Global Consumer (Midweek Update): Consumer Woes Persist, Especially in China.

​Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...

Neil Campling

BUY/SELL/HOLD: China/Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 8th)

Tech NEV companies continue to dominate the research landscape for Hong Kong coverage. Bosideng, China Water Affairs, Topsports, BYD and Xiaomi...

David Mudd

Belle Fashion IPO: The Investment Case

The investment case rests on a market-leading position, return to growth, margin improvement, cash generation and modest leverage.

Arun George

Amer Sports IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on ball and racquet sports’ deteriorating performance, EBIT margin not materially improving under the consortium’s ownership,...

Arun George

Topsports miss signals inventory fire sale in China, impacting Nike, Anta Sports Products, and the sector as a whole. Chinese consumers shun...