Global Editor, Base Oil News

Iain Pocock

Global Editor

Global Base Oils and Lubricants Markets

Base Oil News

Base Oil News focuses on the interplay between fundamentals and prices in the global base oils and lubricants markets.

Baseoilnews.com combines daily, weekly and monthly base oils and lubes fundamentals data from every region of the world to build the most comprehensive and up-to-date global picture of the state of the market.

The data and analysis provide key tools to understand current market developments and opportunities and to anticipate how the market is likely to behave in the coming months.

Base oils producers, lube blenders and consumers can then better plan accordingly.

Baseoilnews.com analyses and publishes market news and data every day as it breaks.

Commodities

<ul><li>Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.</li><li>US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.</li></ul>

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades.Steady price levels leave arbitrage from Asia to Americas hard to work, pointing to limited surplus supply.US Group II light-grade export prices hold in narrow range or strengthen relative to CFR India prices since start of Q2 2025.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.</li><li>Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.</li><li>That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades.Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to outweigh weaker-than-expected demand.That dynamic could ease as weak demand cushions impact of recent/ongoing plant maintenance, speeds up refiners’ stock-replenishment once plants resume operations.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

<ul><li>Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.</li><li>Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.</li><li>Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.</li></ul>

Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels.Prospect of seasonal slowdown in consumption starting in a few weeks would coincide with expected completion of wave of plant maintenance work, boosting supply.Firm base oils margins, prospect of weaker fundamentals and low crude oil prices add to incentive to procure sufficient volumes just to meet term commitments.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shanghai Electric Group Company / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. </li>
<li>All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. </li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are basically flat on the shortened week. AH premia rose in Pharma and Tech, fell in Industrials, Finance, and Banks. 
All eyes will be on what happens in Geneva. I personally don't expect much. 
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025):  AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

<ul><li>Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.</li><li>Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in crude oil/diesel prices.</li><li>Contrasting trends point to stronger base oils fundamentals relative to crude/diesel.</li></ul>

Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in crude oil/diesel prices.Contrasting trends point to stronger base oils fundamentals relative to crude/diesel.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 5 May

China

Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited processes crude oil into a broad range of synthetic fibers, resins and plastics, intermediate petrochemical products and petroleum products.

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Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical (338 HK)

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold in relatively narrow range relative to US export prices, especially for heavy grades. Steady price levels...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices, especially for heavy grades. Price-strength suggests supply-tightness continues to...

Base Oil News

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 12 May

Asia’s base oils demand likely to ease as signs of weaker-than-expected lube consumption incentivize blenders to trim inventory levels. Prospect...

Base Oil News

A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 May 2025): AH Premia Fall Small; Spread Torsion Provides Continued Alpha

AH Premia flat on the week. Volumes are low. All eyes are on Geneva this weekend and I have no view other than to say nothing gets solved in a...

Travis Lundy

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 5 May

Global base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices. Outright prices mostly hold firm or rise even in face of ongoing dip in...

Base Oil News

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