FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.</em></p>

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity demand in China and weak energy prices are dragging harder from below; best to stay on the side-lines for now.&nbsp; Oil prices appear to be responding to concerns over too much supply.&nbsp; The ECB has said low oil prices are a contributing factor to its assessment that more policy easing may be required. We stick to our weaker EUR view, as other major CBs are more prepared to look through the dis-inflation risk.

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.</li></ul><ul><li>In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.</li><li>Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.</li></ul>

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mader Group&rsquo;s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie initiating with Outperform.</li><li> -Mader Group is Australia&rsquo;s largest provider of heavy equipment maintenance -Yet underpenetrated in Australia&rsquo;s mining industry -Attractive model for employees, solid growth trajectory -Macquarie initiates with Outperform</li></ul>

Mader Group&rsquo;s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie initiating with Outperform. -Mader Group is Australia&rsquo;s largest provider of heavy equipment maintenance -Yet underpenetrated in Australia&rsquo;s mining industry -Attractive model for employees, solid growth trajectory -Macquarie initiates with Outperform

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johns-lyng-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26649:1" rel="noopener">Johns Lyng (JLG AU)</a> IE considers PEP’s A$4.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$3.72-4.42 valuation range.</li>
<li>The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. The scheme vote should pass as no disinterested shareholder comes close to holding a blocking stake.  </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable as the timing of an earnings recovery is highly uncertain. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%. </li>
</ul>


The Johns Lyng (JLG AU) IE considers PEP’s A$4.00 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$3.72-4.42 valuation range.
The offer requires regulatory (FIRB and US) and shareholder approvals. The scheme vote should pass as no disinterested shareholder comes close to holding a blocking stake.  
The offer is reasonable as the timing of an earnings recovery is highly uncertain. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%. 


Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

<ul><li>In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls</li></ul>

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

Australia

WorleyParsons Limited provides professional services through alliance and integrated service contracts to the energy, resource and complex process industries.  The Company provides its services to industrial sectors such as oil and gas refining, petrochemicals and chemicals, minerals and metals, power and water and industrial and infrastructure.

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WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU)

AmpGFX - AUD pulled harder in opposite directions

The AUD is being pulled harder in opposite directions with the labour data suggesting the non-mining sector is coming to life, but weaker commodity...

Greg Gibbs

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards...

Sam Ferraro

Mader Group's Competitive Advantages

Mader Group’s casual workforce model, diversification into segments beyond mining maintenance, and strong earnings growth rate, have Macquarie...

FNArena

Johns Lyng (JLG AU): Scheme Vote on 8 October

The offer is reasonable, and the scheme vote should pass. At the last close and for a 23 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.5%/11.0%.

Arun George

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

FNArena

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