Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6% YTD YoY, only slightly slower pace compared to 26.7% in July, and 29% in June. On a single-month, year-on-year basis the growth picked up to 19.1% from 16.7% in July.National land acquisitions (land area purchased by real estate development enterprises) declined by 8.5% on YTD YoY basis, more negative than the 7.8% decline in July.In absolute terms…

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
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Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

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<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

On the morning of September 6th in New York, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a>  announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell 22.5 mn new ADS, equivalent to 4.9% of outstanding ADS, and in addition the company will issue $750 mn in convertible senior notes. Assuming no over-allotments, and full conversion of the notes, we estimate these initiatives will result in approximately 8.5% dilution for existing shareholders. CTRP shares initially traded down around 5% on the news.…

On the morning of September 6th in New York, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)  announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell 22.5 mn new ADS, equivalent to 4.9% of outstanding ADS, and in addition the company will issue $750 mn in convertible senior notes. Assuming no over-allotments, and full conversion of the notes, we estimate these initiatives will result in approximately 8.5% dilution for existing shareholders. CTRP shares initially traded down around 5% on the news.…

Ctrip.com Surprises Markets With New Equity and Convertible Note Issuance

After listening to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1">Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)</a>'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing for China's giant online travel group. In our view, competition (and related pressure on margins) remains intense, but it appears to be coming mainly from indirect competitors and rivals that weren't even on CTRP's radar 1-2 years ago. We therefore retain our negative view on CTRP.Competition appears to be increasing despite the company's dominant…

After listening to Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing for China's giant online travel group. In our view, competition (and related pressure on margins) remains intense, but it appears to be coming mainly from indirect competitors and rivals that weren't even on CTRP's radar 1-2 years ago. We therefore retain our negative view on CTRP.Competition appears to be increasing despite the company's dominant…

More on Ctrip.com Q2 Results; Competition Increasing On All Fronts

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

China Data: New Home Sales Growth Slightly Slower at 25.6% YTD Y/Y (Jan-Aug), Land Sales Still Low

Based on new data released by NBS today: in August, national new home sales (in gross floor area) for 'commercial residential' buildings rose 25.6%...

Robert Ciemniak

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Ctrip.com Surprises Markets With New Equity and Convertible Note Issuance

On the morning of September 6th in New York, Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US) announced two new fundraising initiatives. CTRP will sell...

Daniel Hellberg

More on Ctrip.com Q2 Results; Competition Increasing On All Fronts

After listening to Ctrip.com International (ADR) (CTRP US)'s Q2 earning conference call, we are convinced that competitive pressures are increasing...

Daniel Hellberg

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

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