Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125</li>
<li>Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share</li>
<li>Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125
Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share
Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com


Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (20 May) 1Q25 results: total revenue was RMB13.9bn, up 16% YoY, inline with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.0bn, 7% better than both our estimates and consensus, mainly thanks to more optimizedthan-expected sales and marketing spend.</li><li>Overall travel demand remains resilient, in our view, and TCOM sustained better-than-industry booking volume growth for both domestic business and outbound business, aided by its strong supply chain capabilities, as well as superior customer services capabilities.</li><li>TCOM’s overseas expansion is also on the right track. Although the investment may weigh on earnings growth in the near term, the international expansion should bring long-term value to TCOM, in our view. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Trip.com Group (TCOM) released (20 May) 1Q25 results: total revenue was RMB13.9bn, up 16% YoY, inline with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.0bn, 7% better than both our estimates and consensus, mainly thanks to more optimizedthan-expected sales and marketing spend.Overall travel demand remains resilient, in our view, and TCOM sustained better-than-industry booking volume growth for both domestic business and outbound business, aided by its strong supply chain capabilities, as well as superior customer services capabilities.TCOM’s overseas expansion is also on the right track. Although the investment may weigh on earnings growth in the near term, the international expansion should bring long-term value to TCOM, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Revenue Growth with Investment on Track for Overseas Expansion

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.</li>
<li>Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.</li>
<li>We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.</li>
</ul>


Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.
Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.
We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.


Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;</li>
<li>Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;
Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, 
We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Revenue Growth with Investment on Track for Overseas Expansion

Both our 25-27E revenue and earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged, and we keep our DCF-based TP at US$70.0, translating into 20x 25E PE (non...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24. Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew...

Ming Lu

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM US) - Resilient Revenue Growth with Investment on Track for Overseas Expansion

Both our 25-27E revenue and earnings forecasts remain largely unchanged, and we keep our DCF-based TP at US$70.0, translating into 20x 25E PE (non...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24. Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew...

Ming Lu

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

​TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...