Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125</li>
<li>Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share</li>
<li>Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125
Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share
Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com


Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.</li>
<li>Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.</li>
<li>We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.</li>
</ul>


Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in China in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24.
Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew by 23%.
We believe operating margin will be stable, as the growth of sales and market expense has been slowing down.


Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

<ul>
<li>March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend</li>
<li>Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors</li>
<li>Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts</li>
</ul>


March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;</li>
<li>Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, </li>
<li>We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.</li>
</ul>


TCOM reported C4Q24 revenue 5.4%/3.6% higher than our estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP operating profit 11.2%/6.2% higher than our estimate/consensus, supported by strong domestic travel rebound;
Even though C1Q25 margin guidance was soft due to commitment to overseas expansions and a couple of one-time events affecting outbound, 
We keep the stock as BUY rating and keep TP at US$74/ADS.


[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.</li><li>This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.</li><li>I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.</li></ul>

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24. Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew...

Ming Lu

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

China's leading travel platform Trip.com reported an unimpressive set of results earlier this week, as a sharp rise in OpEx led to margin compression.

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com (TCOM): 1Q25, Hotel Booking Revenue Up by 23%

Total travelers grew by 26% YoY in 1Q25, up from 13% YoY in 4Q24. Trip.com’s total revenue grew by 16% YoY in 1Q25, among which hotel booking grew...

Ming Lu

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

Data from China's leading airlines and some popular regional destinations show a clear slowing of travel demand growth in March and Q125. For now,...

Tracking Traffic

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Review]: Steady Domestic Supports for Venturing in Overseas

​TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

TCOM's strong Q4 revenue and profit beat estimates, driven by domestic travel rebound. Despite soft margin guidance for Q1, stock remains a BUY...