Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Monday's huge post-election move in Nikkei 225 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> caused Advantest to clear 10.00% realtime at day-end. Assuming nothing changes til end-Jan-2026, Advantest gets capped at end-Mar-2026</li>
<li>As of today, that would be roughly 1.6x ADV and US$2.75bn but it would be 10% of Max Real World Float. </li>
<li>This is far off but should stay on the radar. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> is close behind at 8.7%. 15+% outperformance would put it in capping territory too.  </li>
</ul>


Monday's huge post-election move in Nikkei 225 and Advantest Corp (6857 JP) caused Advantest to clear 10.00% realtime at day-end. Assuming nothing changes til end-Jan-2026, Advantest gets capped at end-Mar-2026
As of today, that would be roughly 1.6x ADV and US$2.75bn but it would be 10% of Max Real World Float. 
This is far off but should stay on the radar. Softbank Group (9984 JP) is close behind at 8.7%. 15+% outperformance would put it in capping territory too.  


[Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>A lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a> has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.</li>
</ul>



Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has crossed 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
A lot of Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. The capping will increase that float significantly.

Advantest Corp (6857 JP) has outperformed its peers significantly and trades at higher valuation metrics compared to its peers.


Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Advantest (6857 JP) enjoys a near-monopoly in advanced SoC and memory testing, entrenched at TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, making it the structural gatekeeper of the AI supply chain.</li>
<li>The company is scaling capacity by 70% in FY25 and investing in next-gen chiplet and system-level test platforms to capture future AI/HBM growth.</li>
<li>At ~35× P/E and ~23× EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at a premium that reflects record margins and 25%+ CAGR, risks include AI capex cyclicality, Taiwan/Korea dependence, China restrictions, and FX.</li>
</ul>


Advantest (6857 JP) enjoys a near-monopoly in advanced SoC and memory testing, entrenched at TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, making it the structural gatekeeper of the AI supply chain.
The company is scaling capacity by 70% in FY25 and investing in next-gen chiplet and system-level test platforms to capture future AI/HBM growth.
At ~35× P/E and ~23× EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at a premium that reflects record margins and 25%+ CAGR, risks include AI capex cyclicality, Taiwan/Korea dependence, China restrictions, and FX.


Advantest Corp (6857 JP) – From Cyclical Tester OEM to Structural AI Bottleneck

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Kokusai Electric deal yesterday with AMAT selling a 10.7m clip is a mere morsel for the market and helps clear overhead risk.</li>
<li>This creates a good setup for long Kokusai short Advantest which should see some reticence creep in as it hits the NKY CPAF cap.</li>
<li>Trump is trying to force homebuilders to build more as a panacea for the housing affordability crisis. Not good for margins.</li>
</ul>


Kokusai Electric deal yesterday with AMAT selling a 10.7m clip is a mere morsel for the market and helps clear overhead risk.
This creates a good setup for long Kokusai short Advantest which should see some reticence creep in as it hits the NKY CPAF cap.
Trump is trying to force homebuilders to build more as a panacea for the housing affordability crisis. Not good for margins.


Japan Morning Connection: Intel Announces Its Long Awaited 18A Process

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul>
<li>Advantest Corporation delivered a robust performance in FY 2024, with record-high sales, operating income, and net income, primarily driven by sustained demand for AI-related high-performance semiconductor testing.</li>
<li>The company effectively addressed the increased complexity in semiconductors through strategic procurement, supply chain diversification, and long-term agreements.</li>
<li>This allowed Advantest to meet the elevated demand, particularly in SoC and memory tester sales.</li>
</ul>


Advantest Corporation delivered a robust performance in FY 2024, with record-high sales, operating income, and net income, primarily driven by sustained demand for AI-related high-performance semiconductor testing.
The company effectively addressed the increased complexity in semiconductors through strategic procurement, supply chain diversification, and long-term agreements.
This allowed Advantest to meet the elevated demand, particularly in SoC and memory tester sales.


Advantest - High-Performance Chip Boom & Share Buybacks Make This A Stock To Watch!

Japan

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

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Advantest Corp (6857 JP)

[Quiddity Index] HUGE Rally Brings Advantest to Nikkei Capping Territory

The big rally on Advantest puts it at 10% in Nikkei 225 meaning it will be subject to capping in March if it stays here to end-Jan. A thing to...

Travis Lundy

Advantest (6857 JP): Rally Leads to Potential NKY Capping

Advantest has outperformed its peers and trades rich on most valuation metrics. The outperformance could also lead to NKY capping in March and that...

Brian Freitas