Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.</li>
<li>KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.</li>
<li>Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.</li>
</ul>


TI is experiencing 50%+ YoY growth in data center, showing no signs of AI server demand slowdown.
KLA calls 2nm a “compelling” node, projecting it could be the industry’s largest over first three years.
Taiwan Tech positioned to benefit via TSMC N2 ramp, CoWoS packaging, and ABF substrate expansion.


Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

<ul>
<li>TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think</li>
<li>OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...</li>
<li>AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026</li>
</ul>


TSMC's Most Advanced Node -- 5x Growth to 200K Wafers a Month? Upcoming 2nm Node Capacity Ramp Could Be Much Bigger Than Many Think
OpenAI's Sam Altman 'Jokes' About Owning US$3 Trillion Worth of GPUs One Day...
AI PC Delay -- Nvidia-MediaTek Push AI PC Chip Launch to 2026


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

Himax Technologies Inc Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./</li>
<li>
Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.</li>
<li>
Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.</li>
</ul>



China’s push for 100% auto chip localization by 2027 poses risk to Himax, which derived 75% of 1Q25 revenue from China. We engaged the company for comments./

Himax may avoid direct targeting due to Taiwanese roots and local production via CN Nexchip, and we believe is less vulnerable than Western firms like NXP, TI, and Wolfspeed.

Copackaged Optics (CPO) industry momentum continues to build as Himax continues role alongside TSMC and FOCI; industry moves from Nvidia, AMD validate long-term optical interconnect opportunity Himax is positioned for.


TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.</li>
<li>There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/technology-select-sector-spdr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27543:1" rel="noopener">Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/broadcom-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:998:1" rel="noopener">Broadcom (AVGO US)</a> will have largest outflows.</li>
</ul>


There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF in June but there are a lot of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.2bn. Impact on the stocks is small given they are highly liquid.
There will be more flows in a lot of these stocks from trackers of the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK US). Broadcom (AVGO US) will have largest outflows.


MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  </li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) is likely to exceed its 2Q25 guidance by 5–10%, while the outlook for 3Q25 appears somewhat gloomy, with a flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) performance likely.

Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) are allocating a few thousand 12” wafers at UMC, but it appears to be the end of the product cycle.  

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), for example, has been relatively aggressive in wafer procurement in 2Q25, which could lead to a pullback in 3Q25.  


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

United States

Texas Instruments Incorporated operates as a semiconductor design and manufacturing company. The Company develops analog ICs and embedded processors. Texas Instruments has manufacturing or sales operations worldwide.

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Texas Instruments (TXN US)

Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

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Texas Instruments & KLA Signal Continued AI Strength, Foreshadow TSMC’s 2nm Breakout

​TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Preparing 5x 2nm Ramp into 2027; Altman 'Jokes' About Buying 100x More GPUs

​TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

TechChain Insights: Himax Threatened by China Auto Chip Push? CPO Tech with TSMC Remains Bright Spot

​China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: US$1.2bn Round-Trip Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 2.5% and in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): Gloomy Outlook for 3Q25.

UMC may beat 2Q25 guidance, but 3Q25 outlook appears flat; QCOM and NVDA allocating wafers at UMC, signaling end of product cycle; Samsung...

Patrick Liao

TI's data center growth remains strong with 50% YoY growth, KLA sees potential in 2nm node to be the largest ever, Taiwan Tech set to benefit from...

TSMC's upcoming 2nm node could see a significant increase in wafer capacity, OpenAI's Sam Altman jokes about owning trillions worth of GPUs, and...

China's push for auto chip localization poses some risk to Himax, but its local production may offer some protection. Himax's role in Copackaged...