Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!</li>
<li>Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.</li>
<li>The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.</li>
</ul>


Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000 attendees came to Semicon this year, and that’s the best sign that semiconductor manufacturing in the US is back!
Amid Applied Material’s new tool Vistara, Lam Research talking about their simulation platform, and Tokyo Electron talking about a new etch tool, there was a flurry of news and product announcements.
The most exciting piece of news is Tokyo Electron’s cryogenic etch product. Their new product is a big deal.


Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>In the recent earnings, Lam Research Corporation demonstrated strong performance in the December quarter of 2023.</li><li>Financial highlights include higher revenues, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS above guided ranges.</li><li>Although overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending declined, the company almost doubled its EPS compared to the cycle trough in 2019.</li></ul>

In the recent earnings, Lam Research Corporation demonstrated strong performance in the December quarter of 2023.Financial highlights include higher revenues, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS above guided ranges.Although overall wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending declined, the company almost doubled its EPS compared to the cycle trough in 2019.

Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! - Major Drivers

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY</li>
<li>Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.</li>
<li>The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. </li>
</ul>


LRCX reported Q423 revenues of $3.76 billion, marginally ahead of the guided midpoint, up 8% QoQ but down 29% YoY
Looking ahead, LRCX forecasted Q124 revenues of $3.7 billion, essentially flat sequentially.
The memory recovery is happening, but only for HBM and node transitions. No spending on memory capacity additions means limited upside for LRCX. 


LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.</li>
<li>
<strong>No more Moore's Law</strong>: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.</li>
<li>Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.</li>
</ul>


TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.

No more Moore's Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.


What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

<ul><li>Lam Research reported strong revenues and earnings and exceeded its guidance range as well as Wall Street.</li><li>This uncertainty introduces risk to Lam Research's revenue and earnings trajectory.</li><li>With competitors striving to develop innovative solutions and capture market share, Lam Research may face challenges in maintaining its market leadership and pricing power.</li></ul>

Lam Research reported strong revenues and earnings and exceeded its guidance range as well as Wall Street.This uncertainty introduces risk to Lam Research's revenue and earnings trajectory.With competitors striving to develop innovative solutions and capture market share, Lam Research may face challenges in maintaining its market leadership and pricing power.

United States

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Lam Research (LRCX US)

Semicon West: Big Shifts in the NAND Market

Semicon West is “back”! Participation this year was up 65% compared to 2022, and I believe it’s an all-time high for visitors! Over 25,000...

Fabricated Knowledge

Lam Research Corporation: Navigating Industry Inflections With Superior Tools & Customer-Centric Solutions! - Major Drivers

In the recent earnings, Lam Research Corporation demonstrated strong performance in the December quarter of 2023. Financial highlights include...

Baptista Research

LRCX. Recovery Stalls As Outlook Remains Stubbornly Muted

LRCX Q423 revenue $3.76 billion, +8% QoQ, -29% YoY. Q124 revenues guide $3.7 billion, flat QoQ.Memory IS recovery, but only for HBM & node...

William Keating

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference? TSMC revises down 2024 global semi y/y sales from over 10% to...

Andrew Lu

Lam Research: Skilled Labor Shortages

Lam Research reported strong revenues and earnings and exceeded its guidance range as well as Wall Street. This uncertainty introduces risk to Lam...

Baptista Research