Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced a massive share buyback program worth 10 trillion won which represents 3.1% of its market cap.</li>
<li>Of this total amount, about 3 trillion won will be purchased and cancelled in the next three months. This will include 50,144,628 common shares and 6,912,036 preferred shares.</li>
<li>We believe that this massive share buyback and cancellation is likely to boost Samsung Electronics' share price resulting in a strong outperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 6-12 months. </li>
</ul>


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) announced a massive share buyback program worth 10 trillion won which represents 3.1% of its market cap.
Of this total amount, about 3 trillion won will be purchased and cancelled in the next three months. This will include 50,144,628 common shares and 6,912,036 preferred shares.
We believe that this massive share buyback and cancellation is likely to boost Samsung Electronics' share price resulting in a strong outperformance relative to KOSPI in the next 6-12 months. 


Samsung Electronics: A Massive 10 Trillion Won Share Buyback Program

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>As reported by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/sanghyun-park" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:354" rel="noopener">Sanghyun Park</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> 's phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon - not official yet).</li>
<li>As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.</li>
<li>We have been monitoring <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback... <strong>time to BUY? <br></strong>
</li>
</ul>


As reported by Sanghyun Park, Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) 's phase 2 buyback disposal plan appears to be virtually finalized (or will be finalized soon - not official yet).
As always, we’ll assess what our tactical models suggest about the trend from here—interpreted alongside the latest catalysts.
We have been monitoring Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) for a while: the stock has been bottoming, then flat for a while, rallied modestly, now a minor pullback... time to BUY?  



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) Tactical Outlook Amid Rumored Phase 2 Buyback Confirmation

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.</li>
<li>Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.</li>
<li>Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.</li>
</ul>


If ₩500B comes from common shares, about 40M shares retire, raising Samsung Life and Fire stakes to 10.07%, requiring a ₩0.23T block sale to trim excess.
Slightly smaller than last time but still notable, the insurers acted fast in February. Expect a ~0.07% block trade soon, though price impact was mild previously.
Watch for preferred share outperformance as phase two buyback hits 0.66% common vs. 0.81% preferred (effective buyback assuming cancellation); similar dynamics may repeat in the larger ₩4T phase three buyback.


Samsung Electronics’ Phase 2 Buyback Disposal Plan Virtually Finalized: Two Key Trading Implications

<ul>
<li>CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.</li>
<li>Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.</li>
<li>TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.</li>
</ul>


CSOP told Korean media this Sammy ETF product targets Korea's local retail traders wanting leveraged or short KOSPI exposure, especially Sammy, without using Korea’s derivatives market—essentially a cross-border retail play.
Korean retail’s insanely strong demand for anything leveraged, combined with limited domestic derivatives access, makes significant local inflows very likely—far from a moonshot.
TRS use doesn’t guarantee 1:1 futures buying—depends on broker hedging. But, with Samsung futures volume surging, heavy retail flows in CSOP ETF could cause contango and a basis arb opportunity.


CSOP Sammy ETF + Korean Retail Leverage Frenzy = Contango Basis Arb Alert

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. </li>
<li>Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND </li>
<li>Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) already released 1Q25 data, we knew it was a decent quarter on good Smartphone sales. What we didn’t know is how bad Memory was. 
Memory revenues declined sharply -17% QoQ on poor 4.4% OP margins: loss of HBM 2/3 revenues (China ban), no HBM3E, ASP pressure for Commodity DRAM and NAND 
Smartphone is seasonally down in 2Q and HBM3E will start very slowly. A small upside possible on pre-tariff demand but the bigger negative remains Samsung low exposure to AI growth.


Samsung 1Q25: Already Reported Was Decent, 2Q / 2H Outlook Uninspiring. The Stock Will Remain Cheap

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)