Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Tesla first began to equip its Model S with self-driving technology in October 2014 and announced the launch of its "Autopilot" software to take advantage of those sensors exactly one year later. In separating the sensors from the software, and making that software incrementally available via over-the-air (OTA) updates, the company heralded an entirely new approach to autonomous driving that has since come to be both derided and admired in equal measure. Tesla's autopilot capability was widely regarded as ground-breaking when it was first introduced and many would argue that it was the catalyst for its peers and competitors to rapidly accelerate their autonomous driving investments and roadmaps.Since that time, Tesla's self-driving roadmap has seen many twists and turns. Their partnership with MobilEye, upon whose chips their initial autopilot roll-out critically depended, ended abruptly and acrimoniously in the wake of a fatal crash involving one of their Model S vehicles in May 2016. Their backup plan, the development of a custom ASIC chip to replicate MobilEye's functionality, was still in its infancy, forcing Tesla to turn to NVIDIA for its DRIVE PX platform. That same fatal crash was the impetus for a total redesign of their sensor suite. The new hardware platform was launched in October 2016 with the announcement that all future Tesla cars would be fully equipped with the hardware &amp; sensors required for full self-driving capability.As automobiles equipped with the new self-driving hardware rolled off the production lines, they were missing the software to make them work, meaning that they lacked basic advanced driving features such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC) etc. Tesla promised to deliver those capabilities incrementally in the following months, but inevitably, delays ensued and reliability concerns arose when they were initially released. Only in recent months has Tesla's "Enhanced Autopilot" begun to approach the same level of capability as its original launch version. Tesla CEO Elon Musk's commitment to demonstrating fully autonomous driving from US coast-to-coast by the end of 2017 failed to materialize, although he has recently stated that it should happen within 3-6 months. Meanwhile, the rapidly growing availability of new safety features such as AEB, the launch of competing driver assistance features such as General Motors (GM)"Super Cruise" and the publicly announced plans for driverless taxi pilots by both Waymo and GM have eroded Tesla's leadership. Indeed, one research firm, Navigant, doesn't even rate Tesla in its latest top ten leaders list.   In this Insight, we review the history of autonomous driving at Tesla, tracing its roots from the original autopilot launch to the present day. We examine the technology behind Tesla's self-driving platform and highlight their steadfast refusal to incorporate LIDAR in their sensor suite as every other competitor has done. Finally, in the wake of another fatal Tesla crash, we ask the very important question, how safe is Tesla Autopilot?

Tesla first began to equip its Model S with self-driving technology in October 2014 and announced the launch of its "Autopilot" software to take advantage of those sensors exactly one year later. In separating the sensors from the software, and making that software incrementally available via over-the-air (OTA) updates, the company heralded an entirely new approach to autonomous driving that has since come to be both derided and admired in equal measure. Tesla's autopilot capability was widely regarded as ground-breaking when it was first introduced and many would argue that it was the catalyst for its peers and competitors to rapidly accelerate their autonomous driving investments and roadmaps.Since that time, Tesla's self-driving roadmap has seen many twists and turns. Their partnership with MobilEye, upon whose chips their initial autopilot roll-out critically depended, ended abruptly and acrimoniously in the wake of a fatal crash involving one of their Model S vehicles in May 2016. Their backup plan, the development of a custom ASIC chip to replicate MobilEye's functionality, was still in its infancy, forcing Tesla to turn to NVIDIA for its DRIVE PX platform. That same fatal crash was the impetus for a total redesign of their sensor suite. The new hardware platform was launched in October 2016 with the announcement that all future Tesla cars would be fully equipped with the hardware &amp; sensors required for full self-driving capability.As automobiles equipped with the new self-driving hardware rolled off the production lines, they were missing the software to make them work, meaning that they lacked basic advanced driving features such as automatic emergency braking (AEB), adaptive cruise control (ACC) etc. Tesla promised to deliver those capabilities incrementally in the following months, but inevitably, delays ensued and reliability concerns arose when they were initially released. Only in recent months has Tesla's "Enhanced Autopilot" begun to approach the same level of capability as its original launch version. Tesla CEO Elon Musk's commitment to demonstrating fully autonomous driving from US coast-to-coast by the end of 2017 failed to materialize, although he has recently stated that it should happen within 3-6 months. Meanwhile, the rapidly growing availability of new safety features such as AEB, the launch of competing driver assistance features such as General Motors (GM)"Super Cruise" and the publicly announced plans for driverless taxi pilots by both Waymo and GM have eroded Tesla's leadership. Indeed, one research firm, Navigant, doesn't even rate Tesla in its latest top ten leaders list.   In this Insight, we review the history of autonomous driving at Tesla, tracing its roots from the original autopilot launch to the present day. We examine the technology behind Tesla's self-driving platform and highlight their steadfast refusal to incorporate LIDAR in their sensor suite as every other competitor has done. Finally, in the wake of another fatal Tesla crash, we ask the very important question, how safe is Tesla Autopilot?  

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.</li>
<li>
Macro data points: China NDRC press briefing, South Korean interest rates</li>
<li>
 Companies mentioned:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>
</li>
</ul>


The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.

Macro data points: China NDRC press briefing, South Korean interest rates

 Companies mentioned:Tencent (700 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)



GEMWeekly (11 Oct 2024): China NDRC Underwhelms; South Korea Macro; Tencent, Baidu, Samsung

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Daishin Securities

Daishin Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Founded in 1962, Daishin Securities is a leading financial services provider in Korea. Daishin securities does its best to provide high quality financial service and to satisfy the various needs of investors. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Samsung Electronics reportedly posted OP of W9.1tn for 3Q24, below the market consensus of W10.7tn</li><li>One-time costs (e.g. bonus paid to DS business) and continued losses in the LSI/Foundry segment blamed</li><li>HBM3E supply to major clients and the expansion of server DRAM supply to be key going forward</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsung Electronics reportedly posted OP of W9.1tn for 3Q24, below the market consensus of W10.7tnOne-time costs (e.g. bonus paid to DS business) and continued losses in the LSI/Foundry segment blamedHBM3E supply to major clients and the expansion of server DRAM supply to be key going forwardContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Samsung Electronics - 3Q24: One-Time Costs and Foundry’s Continued Losses

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>Is Intel giving up on AI Accelerator (Gaudi)? Cutting orders first, refocusing on x86. </li>
<li>TSMC CoWoS capacity, sharp wafer price increase, agreement with Amkor.</li>
<li>DRAM price outlook is not that bad, after a 2H24 slowdown. Samsung 2nm and 1.4nm, planning ahead despite poor yield rates.</li>
</ul>


Is Intel giving up on AI Accelerator (Gaudi)? Cutting orders first, refocusing on x86. 
TSMC CoWoS capacity, sharp wafer price increase, agreement with Amkor.
DRAM price outlook is not that bad, after a 2H24 slowdown. Samsung 2nm and 1.4nm, planning ahead despite poor yield rates.


Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.</li>
<li>TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.</li>
<li>Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.</li>
</ul>


Samsung's foundry business is losing more customers to TSMC, who is perceived as lower risk.
TSMC, UMC Monthly Sales: TSMC up strong but plateauing, UMC lackluster, confirming 2 big trends.
Memory Monitor: Nanya results miss; highlights weakness in non-AI demand.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Autonomous Driving- The Tesla Delusion

In the wake of Elon Musk's launch (relaunch?) of Tesla's RoboTaxi yesterday (which tanked the company's share price), you might be interested to...

William Keating

GEMWeekly (11 Oct 2024): China NDRC Underwhelms; South Korea Macro; Tencent, Baidu, Samsung

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

Samsung Electronics - 3Q24: One-Time Costs and Foundry’s Continued Losses

Samsung Electronics (SEC) guided 3Q24 preliminary revenue at W79.0tn (+7% qoq) and OP at W9.1tn (-13% qoq). OP was far below our estimate of W10.1tn

Daishin Securities

Tech News This Week. TSMC and Samsung

Intel first signs of giving up on Gaudi. TSMC CoWoS capacity, sharp wafer price increase, agreement with Amkor in the US. DRAM prices slowdown in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Autonomous Driving- The Tesla Delusion

In the wake of Elon Musk's launch (relaunch?) of Tesla's RoboTaxi yesterday (which tanked the company's share price), you might be interested to...

William Keating

GEMWeekly (11 Oct 2024): China NDRC Underwhelms; South Korea Macro; Tencent, Baidu, Samsung

The Global Emerging Markets Weekly summarises the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global...

Wium Malan, CFA

Samsung Electronics - 3Q24: One-Time Costs and Foundry’s Continued Losses

Samsung Electronics (SEC) guided 3Q24 preliminary revenue at W79.0tn (+7% qoq) and OP at W9.1tn (-13% qoq). OP was far below our estimate of W10.1tn

Daishin Securities

Tech News This Week. TSMC and Samsung

Intel first signs of giving up on Gaudi. TSMC CoWoS capacity, sharp wafer price increase, agreement with Amkor in the US. DRAM prices slowdown in...

Nicolas Baratte

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Taking More Samsung Customers; Hon Hai Unveils Major AI Projects

​Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Samsung's foundry business losing customers to TSMC due to perceived lower risk; TSMC and UMC sales trends confirm industry shifts, while Nanya...