Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<p>Samsung 1P discount is at a historical low of 8.64%.</p><p>It hit a low-10s in late 2015 when we had a 1P-skewed buyback.</p><p>But this is the first time it went down below 10%.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Pref discount"}'>Pref discount</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'><strong>Today</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08637873754152824}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=RP!R[445]C[5]"><strong>8.64%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D mean"}'>120D mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.12754278420827617}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(RP!R396C7:R494C7)">12.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D median"}'>120D median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.12949640287769784}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(RP!R396C7:R494C7)">12.95%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D high"}'>120D high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1552901023890785}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(RP!R396C7:R494C7)">15.53%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"120D low"}'>120D low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08637873754152824}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(RP!R396C7:R494C7)">8.64%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y mean"}'>1Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1465088815077772}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(RP!R248C7:R494C7)">14.65%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y median"}'>1Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.14396887159533073}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(RP!R248C7:R494C7)">14.40%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y high"}'>1Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.19791666666666666}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(RP!R248C7:R494C7)">19.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1Y low"}'>1Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08637873754152824}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(RP!R248C7:R494C7)">8.64%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y mean"}'>2Y mean</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1651472506471987}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=average(RP!R2C7:R494C7)">16.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y median"}'>2Y median</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.1720183486238532}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MEDIAN(RP!R2C7:R494C7)">17.20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y high"}'>2Y high</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.21040723981900453}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MAX(RP!R2C7:R494C7)">21.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2Y low"}'>2Y low</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.08637873754152824}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=MIN(RP!R2C7:R494C7)">8.64%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/416/original/chart.png?1604956666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170416"></figure></section><p>On a 20D MA, we are now at a +3σ for 1P.</p><p>This much diversion for 1P on a 20D MA? Well, it is the highest in many years.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"% of sigma"}'>% of sigma</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Today"}'>Today</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":2.920387008236654}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">292.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-1"}'>T-1</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.209928491072878}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">120.99%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-2"}'>T-2</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.35136088771749097}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">35.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-3"}'>T-3</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9202514619893825}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">92.03%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-4"}'>T-4</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.5885661851954357}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">58.86%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"T-5"}'>T-5</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.0286897114852551}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[0]C[6]">102.87%</td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/417/original/chart%20%281%29.png?1604957013" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170417"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/170/419/original/chart%20%282%29.png?1604957065" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="170419"></figure></section>

Samsung 1P discount is at a historical low of 8.64%.It hit a low-10s in late 2015 when we had a 1P-skewed buyback.But this is the first time it went down below 10%.





Pref discount

Today
8.64%


120D mean
12.75%


120D median
12.95%


120D high
15.53%


120D low
8.64%


1Y mean
14.65%


1Y median
14.40%


1Y high
19.79%


1Y low
8.64%


2Y mean
16.51%


2Y median
17.20%


2Y high
21.04%


2Y low
8.64%

Source: KRX

On a 20D MA, we are now at a +3σ for 1P.This much diversion for 1P on a 20D MA? Well, it is the highest in many years.





% of sigma

Today
292.04%


T-1
120.99%


T-2
35.14%


T-3
92.03%


T-4
58.86%


T-5
102.87%

Source: KRX



Samsung 1P Discount Below 10% for the First Time in History: What's Driving It?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The two quarter-long recovery in both DRAM and NAND prices reversed course during Q3 with ASPs down 2-9% in the case of the former and 9-10% for the latter. Paradoxically, bit shipments were particularly robust during the quarter, indicating strong market demand. In the face of such strong demand, why did memory ASPs decline so much? Here's our thoughts on the matter. </p>

The two quarter-long recovery in both DRAM and NAND prices reversed course during Q3 with ASPs down 2-9% in the case of the former and 9-10% for the latter. Paradoxically, bit shipments were particularly robust during the quarter, indicating strong market demand. In the face of such strong demand, why did memory ASPs decline so much? Here's our thoughts on the matter. 

Memory Recovery Reverses Course As Prices Fall Across The Board

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

<p>The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) for September have been released, and they indicate that 2020 will see modest revenue growth despite the COVID-19 pandemic.  This is a pleasant surprise given that so many people are currently unable to work or to spend money on their favorite activities.</p>

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) for September have been released, and they indicate that 2020 will see modest revenue growth despite the COVID-19 pandemic.  This is a pleasant surprise given that so many people are currently unable to work or to spend money on their favorite activities.

September Semiconductor Stats In: 2020 Growth Despite Pandemic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.</p></div><div><p>Hong Kong saw shorts rise on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-electronic-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1927:1" rel="noopener">BYD Electronics (285 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> while there was short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-grp-co-of-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12880:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pccw-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:873:1" rel="noopener">PCCW Ltd (8 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-bank-co-ltd-3388a037-4214-4997-b45d-520518cfdb57" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10987:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK)</a>. Shorts increased in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate stocks and decreased in Financial names.</p></div><div><p>In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten Inc (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ms-ad-insurance-group-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:631:1" rel="noopener">Ms&amp;Ad Insurance Group Holdin (8725 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP)</a> while shorts decreased on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-building-fund-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1900:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-saison-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6123:1" rel="noopener">Credit Saison (8253 JP)</a>. Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Financials, while shorts were covered on Real Estate and Materials names.</p></div><div><p>In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>, while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korean-air-lines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11048:1" rel="noopener">Korean Air Lines (003490 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-biologics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22932:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS)</a>. </p></div><div><p>Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15726:1" rel="noopener">Acer Inc (2353 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/au-optronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6704:1" rel="noopener">Au Optronics (2409 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unimicron-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18778:1" rel="noopener">Unimicron Technology (3037 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mediatek-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:772:1" rel="noopener">Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)</a> while shorts were covered on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yageo-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13212:1" rel="noopener">Yageo Corporation (2327 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ta-chen-stainless-pipe-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2519:1" rel="noopener">Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co (2027 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ase-technology-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27270:1" rel="noopener">ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nan-ya-printed-circuit-board-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2699:1" rel="noopener">Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT)</a>. </p></div>

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest across Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and Taiwan using the last available data published by the relevant authorities.Hong Kong saw shorts rise on Meituan (3690 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), China Mobile (941 HK) and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) while there was short covering on Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK), PCCW Ltd (8 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) and China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK). Shorts increased in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Real Estate stocks and decreased in Financial names.In Japan, stocks that saw the most shorts were Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), Anritsu Corp (6754 JP), Ms&amp;Ad Insurance Group Holdin (8725 JP) and Mitsui &amp; Co Ltd (8031 JP) while shorts decreased on Nippon Building Fund (8951 JP), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP) and Credit Saison (8253 JP). Sectorally, shorts increased on Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Financials, while shorts were covered on Real Estate and Materials names.In Korea, the biggest increase in shorts were on Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) and Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS), while shorts were covered on Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Korean Air Lines (003490 KS), Kakao Corp (035720 KS) and Samsung Biologics Co., (207940 KS). Stocks in Taiwan that saw the highest increase in shorts were Acer Inc (2353 TT), Au Optronics (2409 TT), Unimicron Technology (3037 TT) and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) while shorts were covered on Yageo Corporation (2327 TT), Ta Chen Stainless Pipe Co (2027 TT), ASE Technology Holding Co Ltd (3711 TT) and Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board (8046 TT). 

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Rising Shorts in HK, Japan and Taiwan

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

<p style="text-align: start;">Memory and storage demand are a critical ingredient in worldwide  digital transformations, spurred by the pandemic.  Demand for memory and processor investments, including domain specific processing, will drive semiconductor fab growth, especially in Asia through 2024.</p>

Memory and storage demand are a critical ingredient in worldwide  digital transformations, spurred by the pandemic.  Demand for memory and processor investments, including domain specific processing, will drive semiconductor fab growth, especially in Asia through 2024.

The Pandemic Will Help Drive Silicon Wafer Fab Spending Increases Through 2023

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Samsung 1P Discount Below 10% for the First Time in History: What's Driving It?

Samsung 1P discount is currently below 10%, a level seen for the first time in history. This insight examines what has been driving the 1P skewness...

Sanghyun Park

Memory Recovery Reverses Course As Prices Fall Across The Board

Normally, robust demand for memory products results in stable or rising prices. The opposite happened in Q3 2020. Here's why.

William Keating

September Semiconductor Stats In: 2020 Growth Despite Pandemic

September's semiconductor industry stats indicate 5+% growth for 2020. Can the business sustain this, or will COVID-19 and/or the US-China Trade...

Jim Handy

Asia Short Interest Weekly: Rising Shorts in HK, Japan and Taiwan

The Asia Short Interest weekly looks at moves in market wide short interest and highlights movements in stock specific short interest that could be...

Brian Freitas

The Pandemic Will Help Drive Silicon Wafer Fab Spending Increases Through 2023

Increased semi fab investments in Asia, spurred by investments to provide services during the pandemic, will drive digital transformations

Thomas Coughlin

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