Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2025.</li>
<li>The preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 36% at the end of September 2025.</li>
<li>On a longer timeframe (3-5 years), this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make relative gains.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 4Q 2025.
The preferred companies' share price discount (relative to the common shares) on the 27 pairs below was 36% at the end of September 2025.
On a longer timeframe (3-5 years), this discount could narrow further to the 20-25% range, which provides additional opportunities for the Korean preferred shares to further make relative gains.


Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 4Q 2025

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Samsung Electronics Pref Shares / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Pref spread looks stretched near 21–22%, likely a pullback soon. Structural re-rate needs a major Samsung narrative shift.</li>
<li>A surprise Samsung special dividend could pivot the pref discount; H2 FCF, Q3 prelims, and lighter capex are the key swing factors.</li>
<li>Expect a short-term pullback; but still stay cautious. Watch the memory upcycle and consider a discount-narrowing trade around late September.</li>
</ul>


Pref spread looks stretched near 21–22%, likely a pullback soon. Structural re-rate needs a major Samsung narrative shift.
A surprise Samsung special dividend could pivot the pref discount; H2 FCF, Q3 prelims, and lighter capex are the key swing factors.
Expect a short-term pullback; but still stay cautious. Watch the memory upcycle and consider a discount-narrowing trade around late September.


Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung's Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend

<ul>
<li>Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.</li>
<li>Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.</li>
</ul>


Three major reasons why Samsung Electronics is our 2025 high conviction pick include attractive valuations, reduced concerns about inheritance tax overhang, and higher likely total shareholder returns.
Given that 2025 will be the last year of major inheritance tax payment for the Lee family, this reduced overhang could act as a positive sentiment on Samsung Electronics.
Pressures on Samsung to announce material improvement to shareholder returns are coming not just from existing shareholders but also from the Korean government due to Korea Corporate Value Up program.


2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

<ul>
<li>The A16 chip Samsung fabs is mainly for real-time inference in Tesla’s FSD cars, not data-center training, which remains dominated by Dojo and NVIDIA hardware.</li>
<li>If Tesla’s deal includes AI chips with HBM, it’s a major catalyst; if just A16, it’s not proof HBM yield issues are solved.</li>
<li>Tesla’s deal isn’t a sure sign Samsung’s HBM4 passed NVIDIA’s qual tests, but it’s a key reference boosting market hype—time to consider a Samsung long, SK Hynix short setup.</li>
</ul>


The A16 chip Samsung fabs is mainly for real-time inference in Tesla’s FSD cars, not data-center training, which remains dominated by Dojo and NVIDIA hardware.
If Tesla’s deal includes AI chips with HBM, it’s a major catalyst; if just A16, it’s not proof HBM yield issues are solved.
Tesla’s deal isn’t a sure sign Samsung’s HBM4 passed NVIDIA’s qual tests, but it’s a key reference boosting market hype—time to consider a Samsung long, SK Hynix short setup.


My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> has been in a downtrend for 4 weeks, but it was only mildly oversold (60% prob. of reversal last Friday, at the Close).</li>
<li>After 4 weeks down, this week the stock re-started its rally, touching 71200 on Tuesday at the Close. </li>
<li>This insight will try to define the short-term profit targets for this rally (spoiler: they are not far, at least from the TIME MODEL perspective...).</li>
</ul>



Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) has been in a downtrend for 4 weeks, but it was only mildly oversold (60% prob. of reversal last Friday, at the Close).
After 4 weeks down, this week the stock re-started its rally, touching 71200 on Tuesday at the Close. 
This insight will try to define the short-term profit targets for this rally (spoiler: they are not far, at least from the TIME MODEL perspective...).


Samsung Electronics (005930 KS): Tactical Outlook and Profit Targets

South Korea

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. manufactures a wide range of consumer and industrial electronic equipment and products such as semiconductors, personal computers, peripherals, monitors, televisions, and home appliances including air conditioners and microwave ovens. The Company also produces Internet access network systems and telecommunications equipment including mobile phones.

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Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)

Timing a Structural Pivot in Samsung's Max Stretched Pref Discount: Potential Special Dividend

This post explores the timing of a structural pivot in Samsung’s max-stretched preferred share discount, factoring in the potential for a special...

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2025 High Conviction: Samsung Electronics

According to industry sources, Samsung Electronics has reportedly passed NVIDIA's HBM3E 12-layer quality test and received a verbal order. So far,...

Douglas Kim

My Take on Samsung’s Big Foundry Deal with Tesla

This post shares my take on Samsung’s big foundry win with Tesla, breaking down what the deal means for Samsung’s stock play.

Sanghyun Park