Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-etsu-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4481:1" rel="noopener">Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP)</a> reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.</li>
<li>The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.</li>
<li>The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.</li>
</ul>



Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported Q1 earnings after the close on 27 July, and they blew the lights out. Higher margins and 10-year record high Q1 progression ratios.
The company also announced guidance which was pretty healthy, but progression ratios suggest it is conservative.
The company announced its second ¥100bn buyback in three months. This one lasts 6 months so impact will be lower, but it will have some impact.


Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wcp-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36076:1" rel="noopener">WCP (WCP KS)</a>, a lithium-ion batteries separator company, is planning to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wcp-ipo-hooked-on-lithium" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72863" rel="noopener">WCP IPO: Hooked on Lithium</a> we noted that WCP has attractive fundamentals due to the favourable demand/supply balance, technology, strong revenue growth and improving margins. </li>
<li>In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would pass on the IPO.</li>
</ul>



WCP (WCP KS), a lithium-ion batteries separator company, is planning to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.
In WCP IPO: Hooked on Lithium we noted that WCP has attractive fundamentals due to the favourable demand/supply balance, technology, strong revenue growth and improving margins. 
In this note, we look at the syndicate's valuation methodology. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we would pass on the IPO.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO.
WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries
In this note, we will talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.


WCP IPO - The Negatives - Patent, Going Concern, Customer Concentration

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wcp-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36076:1" rel="noopener">WCP (WCP KS)</a>, a lithium-ion batteries separator company, is planning to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.  </li>
<li>The price range of KRW80,000-100,000 implies a market cap of KRW2.7-3.4 trillion (US$2.1-2.6 billion).</li>
<li>WCP has attractive fundamentals due to the favourable demand/supply balance, technology, strong revenue growth and improving margins. </li>
</ul>



WCP (WCP KS), a lithium-ion batteries separator company, is planning to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.  
The price range of KRW80,000-100,000 implies a market cap of KRW2.7-3.4 trillion (US$2.1-2.6 billion).
WCP has attractive fundamentals due to the favourable demand/supply balance, technology, strong revenue growth and improving margins. 


When <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/showa-denko-k-k" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1496:1" rel="noopener">Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP)</a> presented their H1 <a href="https://www.sdk.co.jp/assets/files/english/ir/library/pdf_presentation/results2021-2q.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">results</a> on 10 August 2021, and later held their analyst call, it seemed quite bullish. The company was a year ahead of its internal integration efforts after having purchased Hitachi Chemical (renaming it Showa Denko Materials) in a HUGE debt-financed deal in 2020. The company noted that all businesses were operating well and that residual negative numbers coming from restructuring costs and other weaknesses were simply a matter of time to overcome.The company showed an OP forecast which even it admitted was light, and for the year the forecast at ¥85bn remains significantly impacted by the amortisation of goodwill due to the purchase of the Hitachi Chemicals business (¥17.6bn this year). This is to say that OP would be 20% higher if Showa Denko had used US-GAAP or IFRS to account for the purchase of Hitachi Chem.Net Income forecasts out years from now are impacted by this cost to amortise the purchase goodwill. The call was interesting in that it talked about efforts to reduce interest-bearing debt, and also talked about aggressive investment measures. That probably should have been a hint. The shares fell hard from the 17th to the 20th as crude oil did too. <section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/837/original/Screenshot+2021-09-04+at+5.14.22+PM.png?1630746942" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227837"></figure></section>And 13 days after the earnings release the company <a href="https://www.sdk.co.jp/assets/files/english/news/2021/20210823_sdknewsrelease_e.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an equity sale where they would sell 35.1mm shares (including greenshoe) to investors. That is a big number, at roughly a quarter of the pre-existing share count. It is even bigger when you consider shareholder structure. Pricing is likely on 6 September. Below the fold we look at shareholder structure, offer structure, and index demand.

When Showa Denko K.K. (4004 JP) presented their H1 results on 10 August 2021, and later held their analyst call, it seemed quite bullish. The company was a year ahead of its internal integration efforts after having purchased Hitachi Chemical (renaming it Showa Denko Materials) in a HUGE debt-financed deal in 2020. The company noted that all businesses were operating well and that residual negative numbers coming from restructuring costs and other weaknesses were simply a matter of time to overcome.The company showed an OP forecast which even it admitted was light, and for the year the forecast at ¥85bn remains significantly impacted by the amortisation of goodwill due to the purchase of the Hitachi Chemicals business (¥17.6bn this year). This is to say that OP would be 20% higher if Showa Denko had used US-GAAP or IFRS to account for the purchase of Hitachi Chem.Net Income forecasts out years from now are impacted by this cost to amortise the purchase goodwill. The call was interesting in that it talked about efforts to reduce interest-bearing debt, and also talked about aggressive investment measures. That probably should have been a hint. The shares fell hard from the 17th to the 20th as crude oil did too. And 13 days after the earnings release the company announced an equity sale where they would sell 35.1mm shares (including greenshoe) to investors. That is a big number, at roughly a quarter of the pre-existing share count. It is even bigger when you consider shareholder structure. Pricing is likely on 6 September. Below the fold we look at shareholder structure, offer structure, and index demand.

Showa Denko (4004 JP) Offering - Supply, Passive Demand, and Opportunity

Japan

ASAHI KASEI CORPORATION produces synthetic fibers, industrial chemicals, petrochemicals, plastics (resins), and synthetic rubber.  The Company also operates and sells real estates, pharmaceuticals, medical equipments, electronics, construction materials, and consumer products.

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Asahi Kasei (3407 JP)

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) Salutary Earnings, Conservative Forecasts, and Another Buyback

Shin Etsu Chem (4063) is cheapest in a decade to peers on an EV/forward EBIT and forward PER basis. Blowout Q1 earnings and another big buyback. ex...

Travis Lundy

WCP IPO: Valuation Insights

WCP aims to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is unattractive and we...

Arun George

WCP IPO - The Negatives - Patent, Going Concern, Customer Concentration

WCP aims to raise around US$690m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO. In this note, we talk about the not so...

Sumeet Singh

WCP IPO: Hooked on Lithium

WCP has attractive fundamentals due to the favourable demand/supply balance, technology, strong revenue growth and improving margins.

Arun George

Showa Denko (4004 JP) Offering - Supply, Passive Demand, and Opportunity

Showa Denko's offering is not ginormous, but it is BIG. And it will engender a fair bit of passive flow. The question is whether investors will buy...

Travis Lundy

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