Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> is trading near A$3/share, the level of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a>'s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. </li>
<li>With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> in the next few months.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources</a> stock.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) is trading near A$3/share, the level of Albemarle Corp (ALB US)'s revised offer and where Hancock Prospecting has been buying recently. 
With Hancock Prospecting accumulating a stake of nearly 17% over the last month, there will be a float reduction for Liontown Resources (LTR AU) in the next few months.
Short interest has been increasing and the passive selling could provide an exit for the shorts. But Hancock Prospecting could also use the opportunity to buy more Liontown Resources stock.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Passive Selling on Lower Float

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Back on the 28 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> rejected the third proposal of $2.50/share from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a>, the world’s largest lithium producer, citing terms were opportunistic.</li>
<li>Then everything went quiet. There appeared to be an interested party building a stake ~$2.75/share, but nothing concrete emerged. </li>
<li>Now Albemarle has returned with a revised indicative proposal of $3.00/share - best and final. Due diligence has been granted. The board is supportive if terms are firmed.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 28 March, Liontown Resources (LTR AU) rejected the third proposal of $2.50/share from Albemarle (ALB US), the world’s largest lithium producer, citing terms were opportunistic.
Then everything went quiet. There appeared to be an interested party building a stake ~$2.75/share, but nothing concrete emerged. 
Now Albemarle has returned with a revised indicative proposal of $3.00/share - best and final. Due diligence has been granted. The board is supportive if terms are firmed.


<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Two new deals this week: the Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> and the Partial Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intage-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3151:1" rel="noopener">Intage Holdings (4326 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-eagle-retail-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:470:1" rel="noopener">Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mason-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17664:1" rel="noopener">Mason Group Holdings (273 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metro-pacific-investments-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1054:1" rel="noopener">Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Two new deals this week: the Tender Offer for Dic Corp (4631 JP) and the Partial Offer for Intage Holdings (4326 JP).
Key updates took place for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU),  Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK), Mason Group Holdings (273 HK), and Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Newcrest/Newmont, Dic Corp, Golden Eagle, Mason, MPIC

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/liontown-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1" rel="noopener">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a> has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle Corp (ALB US)</a> at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.</li>
<li>The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.</li>
<li>Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.</li>
</ul>



Liontown Resources (LTR AU) has received a revised non-binding privatisation proposal from Albemarle Corp (ALB US) at A$3.00 per share, a 20.0% premium to the previously rejected offer of A$2.50.
The revised offer is attractive compared to the Kathleen Valley Lithium Project’s NPV range, peer multiples and historical share prices. The offer price is final, barring a superior proposal.
Liontown has granted Albemarle a limited period of exclusive due diligence. The Board intends to recommend a binding proposal at A$3.00 per share. The retail vote could be a risk.


Liontown Resources (LTR AU): Albemarle’s Final A$3.00 Offer

<ul>
<li>We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.


S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

Australia

Liontown Resources Ltd. explores for and mines base metals.

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Liontown Resources (LTR AU)