Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.</li>
<li>I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario. </li>
<li>According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.</li>
</ul>


Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.
I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario. 
According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Tech is off the menu for most as CoreWeave shakes AI sentiment further.</li>
<li>Japanese autos largely priced in the tariff news yesterday, although big dividends up for grabs may see renewed interest.</li>
<li>Japan set for another day of duck-and-cover with the rotation back towards domestic defensive set to continue.</li>
</ul>


Tech is off the menu for most as CoreWeave shakes AI sentiment further.
Japanese autos largely priced in the tariff news yesterday, although big dividends up for grabs may see renewed interest.
Japan set for another day of duck-and-cover with the rotation back towards domestic defensive set to continue.


Japan Morning Connection: US Auto Tariffs Shaking Markets but Ex-Date May Lure Buyers Back in Japan

<ul>
<li>Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years</li>
<li>For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.</li>
<li>Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. </li>
</ul>


Buying the worst-performing stocks of the previous 12 months has outperformed Japan’s Topix index by an average of 7% annually for 9 straight years
For most of 2024, the strategy didn’t work, but an uptick in TOBs, MBOs, and merger talks is suddenly making it unsafe to short low-PBR companies indiscriminately.
Suddenly, dozens of previously complacent companies have the fear of God and are taking action to up their profitability and the market is taking notice. 


2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

<ul>
<li>Japan to follow US higher on the much better-than-expected jobs report and the yen back to 148.9</li>
<li>Exporters including the Autos with high US exposures as well as Inbound related laggards such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido/Kose should see sentiment improve</li>
<li>The strong US data should also help the JP Shippers rebound after dropping -8.2% on Fri on the end of the US port workers strike</li>
</ul>


Japan to follow US higher on the much better-than-expected jobs report and the yen back to 148.9
Exporters including the Autos with high US exposures as well as Inbound related laggards such as Isetan Mitsukoshi and Shiseido/Kose should see sentiment improve
The strong US data should also help the JP Shippers rebound after dropping -8.2% on Fri on the end of the US port workers strike


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

<ul>
<li>Further PM Ishiba flip-flopping on his previously hawkish rates policy, set to catch markets wrong footed today.</li>
<li>Homebuilders may face a bigger fallout than expected from hurricane Helene given the potential to squeeze margins as materials and workers are prioritized for emergency efforts.</li>
<li>Exporters including autos, R/E and tourism related names should see renewed interest on the weak yen.</li>
</ul>


Further PM Ishiba flip-flopping on his previously hawkish rates policy, set to catch markets wrong footed today.
Homebuilders may face a bigger fallout than expected from hurricane Helene given the potential to squeeze margins as materials and workers are prioritized for emergency efforts.
Exporters including autos, R/E and tourism related names should see renewed interest on the weak yen.


Japan Morning Connection: Exporters to Jump on the Weak Yen

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Will Japan's Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: US Auto Tariffs Shaking Markets but Ex-Date May Lure Buyers Back in Japan

CoreWeave's announcement drives AI sentiment down further. May see renewed interest in Japanese autos today. Expecting Japan to continue rotation...

Andrew Jackson

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Exporters to Jump on the Weak Yen

PM Ishiba's policy shift could surprise markets, hurricane Helene may impact homebuilders more than expected, and exporters such as autos and...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Will Japan's Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

​Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: US Auto Tariffs Shaking Markets but Ex-Date May Lure Buyers Back in Japan

​CoreWeave's announcement drives AI sentiment down further. May see renewed interest in Japanese autos today. Expecting Japan to continue rotation...

Andrew Jackson

2024 Was Ugly for Turnarounds, 2025 Should Be Awesome!

2025 could be a banner year for turnarounds and value stocks as a spate of recent TOBs, MBOs and merger discussions have suddenly made it unsafe to...

Michael Allen

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Rebound After Strong US Job Data

​Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Exporters to Jump on the Weak Yen

​PM Ishiba's policy shift could surprise markets, hurricane Helene may impact homebuilders more than expected, and exporters such as autos and...

Andrew Jackson

Japan's top trade negotiators are on their way to Washington, but both sides are at risk of repeating WWII mistakes. I asked Grok to use game...

CoreWeave's announcement drives AI sentiment down further. May see renewed interest in Japanese autos today. Expecting Japan to continue rotation...

Japan's market is expected to rise following the US jobs report, benefiting exporters and shippers after a recent drop.

PM Ishiba's policy shift could surprise markets, hurricane Helene may impact homebuilders more than expected, and exporters such as autos and...