Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inpex reported strong Q2 financial results with operating income rising 161% to ¥584 billion </li>
<li>The company revised its full-year OP guidance by 23% to ¥1,133 billion. It is still conservative </li>
<li>Inpex also announced a blockbuster buyback of 120 million shares, or 8.65% of its outstanding capital </li>
</ul>


Inpex reported strong Q2 financial results with operating income rising 161% to ¥584 billion 
The company revised its full-year OP guidance by 23% to ¥1,133 billion. It is still conservative 
Inpex also announced a blockbuster buyback of 120 million shares, or 8.65% of its outstanding capital 


Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.</li>
<li>FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.</li>
<li>Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.</li>
</ul>


JAPEX buys Verdad for USD 1.3bn, gaining operated DJ Basin oil exposure and shifting away from LNG-style earnings.
FY27 operating profit uplift is ~¥14–20bn depending on WTI vs ¥35bn FY26 base.
Strong balance sheet and +11–12% stock reaction support a valuation re-rating toward 3.5–4.0× EBITDA.


JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Investor positioning and sentiment in the energy sector mean potential upside surprises</li>
<li>The US Natural Gas price breakout will impact European and Asian pricing</li>
<li>Our basket of Asian companies provides a mix of cheap growth and income</li>
</ul>


Investor positioning and sentiment in the energy sector mean potential upside surprises
The US Natural Gas price breakout will impact European and Asian pricing
Our basket of Asian companies provides a mix of cheap growth and income


Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel, The Breakout Trade - A Basket of Asian Gas Companies

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Japan Petroleum Exploration / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.</li>
<li>The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.</li>
<li>In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.</li>
</ul>


Japanese companies are buying back more stock than ever before, and recent moves by the TSE and METI are effectively pushing for more.
The new goal is to lift PBR and ROE. The easiest way to lift ROE is reduce E. Low-PBR Cos with excess assets and cross-holdings (outbound and inbound) are targets.
In this insight I look at several possible rankings for potential large buyback targets.


JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 6-month uptrend continues on ACWI-US, which generally coincides with the 50-day MA.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 6-month uptrend (currently at $139.40), the 50-day MA (currently $137.95), and $135.70.


Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Inpex (1605) | Blockbuster Buyback

[EARNINGS] INPEX CORP(1605) Q2 FY12/2023 Net Profit 102.78 billion yen,13.7%YoY above Consensus 72.8 billion yen. Company Full Year Net Profit...

Mark Chadwick

JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...

Rahul Jain

Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel, The Breakout Trade - A Basket of Asian Gas Companies

A basket of Asian oil and gas plays poised to benefit as US Natural Gas prices rise and impact global pricing. Basket offers a mix of income and...

Rikki Malik

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

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Inpex (1605) | Blockbuster Buyback

[EARNINGS] INPEX CORP(1605) Q2 FY12/2023 Net Profit 102.78 billion yen,13.7%YoY above Consensus 72.8 billion yen. Company Full Year Net Profit...

Mark Chadwick

JAPEX (1662 JP): U.S. Tight-Oil Pivot Drives Earnings Reset and Re-Rating Potential

​JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...

Rahul Jain

Natural Gas: The Bridge Fuel, The Breakout Trade - A Basket of Asian Gas Companies

A basket of Asian oil and gas plays poised to benefit as US Natural Gas prices rise and impact global pricing. Basket offers a mix of income and...

Rikki Malik

JAPAN GOVERNANCE CHANGES II - Who Could Surprise on Buybacks? Quant Rankings

JAPAN GOVERNANCE: There is a buyback story coming. It will be big. Bigger than the past year or two, and it will continue. What to buy?

Travis Lundy

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI

Expecting Upside to Continue into Early-2026 for Global Equities $ACWI. Discussed Thursday to expect support at the 50-day MA. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

JAPEX acquires Verdad for $1.3bn, boosting DJ Basin oil exposure and diversifying earnings away from LNG. Operating profit expected to increase in...