Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.</li>
<li>The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. </li>
<li>This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.</li>
</ul>


Ryohin Keikaku's biggest weakness is its unwieldy and expensive supply chains, with hundreds of suppliers across its three main categories of household, apparel and food.
The Muji operator just acquired a large team from one of its principle clothing supply partners, Mitsubishi, to finally streamline its supply chains and improve cost performance in clothing. 
This should have a positive impact on its cost of goods, margins and inventory levels, allowing for quicker responses to trends at a lower price at home and overseas.


Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.</li>
<li>At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible</li>
<li>In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. </li>
</ul>


In April 2022, after long prep and considerable public comment as to desires and design, the TSE launched its new market segments designed to encourage governance and foreign investment.
At the time, the TSE wanted to showcase Japan's best blue chips. In March, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, designed to make visible
In March 2023, JPX announced JPX Prime 150, to "make visible the leading Japanese companies that are estimated to create value." Ambitious? Yes. Fated to fail? Probably. Badly constructed?  Definitely. 


The TSE's New 'Better' Index:  JPX Prime 150

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson Inc (2651 JP)</a> has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.</li>
<li>Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.</li>
<li>Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.</li>
</ul>



Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.
Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.
Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.


David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The benefits of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-medical-system-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18736:1" rel="noopener">China Medical System (867 HK)</a> China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. </li>
<li>Should <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> continue its Brazil market launch, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.</li>
<li>Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.</li>
</ul>


The benefits of China Medical System (867 HK) China Medical System (867 HK)'s secondary listing on the SGX are more apparent than real. 
Should Meituan (3690 HK) continue its Brazil market launch, Prosus NV (PRX NA) will have little reason to continue to hold on to its Meituan stake.
Look for value to be realised for Japanese banks with low PBRs and PERs, AND high cross-holdings as a percentage of market cap or book value through better capital allocation.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

The TSE is launching a new JPX Prime 150 Index on 3 July 2023. It is 150 stocks with high PBRs and high "Equity Spread" (ROE vs cost of capital)...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

Lawson plans to list its upscale supermarket subsidiary Seijo Ishii. The latter is one of the best supermarket operators in the country and is...

Michael Causton

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Ryohin Keikaku: Finally Fixing Its Biggest Weakness?

​Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...

Michael Causton

The TSE's New 'Better' Index: JPX Prime 150

The TSE is launching a new JPX Prime 150 Index on 3 July 2023. It is 150 stocks with high PBRs and high "Equity Spread" (ROE vs cost of capital)...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

Lawson plans to list its upscale supermarket subsidiary Seijo Ishii. The latter is one of the best supermarket operators in the country and is...

Michael Causton

Last Week In Event SPACE: Meituan/Prosus, China Medical System, Japanese Banks, New World Dev.

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Muji operator Ryohin Keikaku looks set to improve its supply chains and cost performance in clothing by acquiring a team from Mitsubishi, leading...