Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Credit

<ul>
<li>Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.</li>
<li>China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.</li>
<li>We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


Asian USD high-yield bonds have outperformed on an improving sentiment toward emerging market credits.
China 5-year CDS has declined 14 bps since June and we expect non-property Chinese credits to have more capital inflow on  the hunt for a better yield.
We are in favor of Chinese high-yield credits with recurring revenue and operate in more defensive industries such as consumer non-discretionary, utilities, and pharmaceuticals.


Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

<ul>
<li>We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.</li>
<li>H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.</li>
<li>The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.</li>
</ul>


We initiate our coverage on Health and Happiness International Holding Limited (H&amp;H)’s BTSDF 9.125% 24Jul2028.
H&amp;H has refinanced USD320m of 2026 notes with the new USD300m of 2028 notes at a 9.125% coupon. The new bonds help extend its debt maturity and lower financing cost.
The bonds offer diversification and a chance to invest back in China after the fallout in the property sector. We assign an OVERWEIGHT recommendation.


Debt Capital Markets

Asia High Yield Bond Index / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.</li>
<li>We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. </li>
<li>Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.</li>
</ul>


Inflation will remain sticky but we expect the recession headline to keep a lid on consumer spending which should also limit the possibility of a future rate hike.
We believe fixed rate bonds should be the instrument of choice toward the end of this year. 
Rising default and a lack of growth in developed markets should also bode well for Asian US Dollar (USD) bonds.


Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<ul>
<li>US treasury yields were up 1-2 bps across the curve, on the back of a stronger than expected JOLTS report.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.95%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.46%.</li>
<li>Equities advanced, supported by the strong jobs report despite continued uncertainty on trade.</li>
</ul>


US treasury yields were up 1-2 bps across the curve, on the back of a stronger than expected JOLTS report.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to 3.95%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.46%.
Equities advanced, supported by the strong jobs report despite continued uncertainty on trade.


iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond / Debt Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.</li>
<li>Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term</li>
<li>We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.</li>
</ul>


We believe Moody’s simply took the opportunity on the Tariff news to move USA’s rating to be in-line with those of the other two agencies.
Though rising rates are not friendly to fixed rate bonds, we believe Asian high-yield bonds remain a good place to park capital in the near term
We prefer short duration under 5 years to keep duration low in preparation for an upward pressure on rates in the near term.


Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile

Indonesia

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

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Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)

Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...

Bondcritic

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasury yields were up 1-2 bps across the curve, on the back of a stronger than expected JOLTS report. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to...

Lucror Analytics

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile

Moody's adjusts USA's rating in line with other agencies, Asian high-yield bonds seen as a good investment despite rising rates, short duration...

Bondcritic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asian Bond Monitor: Chinese Bonds Are Back

​Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

Bondcritic

Health & Happiness: On Deleveraging Path

​Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Bondcritic

Asian Bond Monitor: Asian Bonds for the Upcoming Recession

​Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...

Bondcritic

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

US treasury yields were up 1-2 bps across the curve, on the back of a stronger than expected JOLTS report. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 2 bps to...

Lucror Analytics

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPoline Projectile

​Moody's adjusts USA's rating in line with other agencies, Asian high-yield bonds seen as a good investment despite rising rates, short duration...

Bondcritic

Asian high-yield bonds, particularly Chinese credits, are performing well due to improving sentiment towards emerging markets, with a focus on non...

Coverage initiated on H&H's new 9.125% 2028 bonds, offering diversification and a chance to invest in China post-property sector fallout....

Inflation remains high but recession fears will limit consumer spending and future rate hikes. Fixed rate bonds and Asian USD bonds are...

Moody's adjusts USA's rating in line with other agencies, Asian high-yield bonds seen as a good investment despite rising rates, short duration...